The Dallas Cowboys continued their winning ways last weekend with a 44-20 trouncing of the lowly New York Giants to move to 4-1. It was a win that opened itself up in the second half but gave the Cowboys areas to look to improve. Their Week 6 matchup raises the intrigue level quite a bit and gives the Cowboys another chance to continue putting themselves firmly in the conversation of the NFL’s elite. Good teams go into the bye week with a win; the Cowboys need to do so.
The Cowboys head to Foxborough to take on the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots enter this game off of a win where they had to engineer a 13-point comeback against the Houston Texans, arguably the bottom feeder of the entire league. Normally, I would view a 2-3 team differently, but Patriots head coach, Bill Belichick, is never one to underestimate.
Like we do every week, let’s dive into the history of this matchup, take a look at the weather outlook (guys, we get to talk about an outdoor game, finally!), a few players who I think could influence this game plus a little extra here for you, and wrap us up with a gut prediction.
New England Patriots vs Dallas Cowboys History
All-Time Record: 7-6 in favor of the Cowboys (no Super Bowl matchups)
Most Recent Result: New England 13, Dallas 9 on November 24, 2019
A cross-conference matchup, the Cowboys and Patriots have not met each other too many times before. It is a bit odd how we have gotten to the all-time record, though. The Cowboys won the first seven matchups, followed by New England rattling off wins in the six most recent games. The Cowboys have not taken down the Patriots since 1996.
The recent run by the Patriots can largely be attributed to their future Hall of Fame duo of former quarterback, Tom Brady, and Belichick. Those two went 5-0 against the Cowboys and seemed to constantly have the Cowboys’ number. The Cowboys go on the road this weekend trying to snap a four-game losing streak when playing at New England.
This series has an interesting start as these two teams met in the first-ever game held at the Cowboys’ former home, Texas Stadium. The game on October 24, 1971, was not only the first game hosted there but also the first-ever matchup between these teams. The Cowboys started their seven-win run with a 44-21 victory.
As of lately, the Cowboys’ last two games have been entirely underwhelming. In 2015, the Cowboys lost quarterback, Tony Romo, early in the season for eight weeks due to a broken collarbone and did not win a single game in his absence. One of those games was a 30-6 beatdown at the hands of the Patriots that saw Tom Brady score three times.
The most recent result, in 2019, gave us the most “Foxborough” weather of when the teams met in late November. It was rainy and in the low 40s. This led to one total touchdown between the teams. The Cowboys could only manage three field goals in a 13-9 loss.
This New England team is much different from those of the past. Tom Brady has moved to Tampa Bay and rookie quarterback Mac Jones is leading the offense that is only averaging 19 points per game, a much different output than Patriots of the best. This Patriots team is one having to scratch and claw to simply be in games. The talent level that the NFL is accustomed to seeing out of New England seems to be down a bit this season.
New England Patriots vs Dallas Cowboys Weather Outlook
Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Stadium Type: Open stadium, turf
Predicted Forecast: High of 64, low of 48, mostly sunny, winds of 7-8mph with gusts up to 10-11mph
Welcome. We have made it. The Cowboys finally head outdoors for a game and we get to talk a little weather. Okay, now that all of your long-awaited excitement is over, this weather forecast is about the most perfect one you could ask for to play a football game in. We’ll get a late-fall chill in the air, sunny, and not much wind coming into play.
Gillette Stadium has a turf playing surface that shouldn’t come into play on Sunday in really any effect. The wind could potentially have a slight impact on field goals, but not one I see determining too large of a factor unless the kick is from 50+ yards, which I hope the Cowboys avoid by continuing to drive the ball and be aggressive on fourth downs.
This weather suits the Cowboys’ offense beautifully leaving the door wide open for their multiple attacks on the ground and through the air. The field should be dry allowing the running backs and receivers should be able to do what they want. The flipside of that is the Patriots’ offense also gets the same weather, but I think the Cowboys see more benefit from this.
This is a stark contrast from the Cowboys’ last visit to Foxborough when the temperature was in the low-40s with constant rain. This is a welcome sight for both teams and the fans in attendance, which may be one of the louder away crowds the Cowboys will be seeing up to this point in the season. The Patriots fans deserve some kudos as they can get things rocking, but I think the Cowboys’ offensive efficiency could deflate that balloon quickly.
New England Patriots vs Dallas Cowboys “Under the Radar” Players
Dallas Cowboys: Keanu Neal, LB
New England Patriots: Matt Judon, DE
Hand up. My apologies for speaking the Kadarius Toney coronation into existence prior to last weekend. He won some matchups against the Cowboys, and boy, did he ever take advantage of the opportunity. Let’s hope this Pats player doesn’t hurt us as bad. Plus, a little something extra at the end…
Mac Jones only averages 6.5 yards per attempt this season. For some context, Dak Prescott averages nearly two whole yards more at 8.3 yards per attempt. The Patriots running backs and tight ends also account for nearly 52% of the receptions on the Patriots. Keanu Neal is going to be active in the passing game this week.
Prior two Neal’s two-week absence due to COVID-19, he saw 77% and 72% of the snaps in the first two weeks of the season. In his return last week, Neal still saw 50% of the snaps. Expect that number to increase back to the mid-70% range, especially with his ability to cover running backs and tight ends in the passing game.
Neal is going to be tasked with lining up against tight ends, Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith, along with potentially picking up running backs, Rhamondre Stevenson and Brandon Bolden, out of the backfield. The verdict is still out on lead back, Damien Harris, as he nurses a rib injury, although I would bet he plays. The Patriots are without running back, James White, who is on the injured reserve and currently lists Brandon Bolden as questionable.
With some questions at running back and Jones’ evidenced liking of his short passing game, Neal could see a lot of action against the tight ends. Coming in at 212 pounds and running a 4.6, Neal is much more of a hybrid player even though listed as a linebacker. As far as a prediction, my gut tells me that Neal is guarding a tight end and we get a forced fumble after the catch at some point Sunday afternoon.
To a lot of America, Matt Judon is a lesser-known edge rusher. That is about to change rapidly. The Patriots defender is proving to be a monster this season. Through five games Judon has accumulated 6.5 sacks, 20 tackles, eight of which have been a tackle for loss, and 11 hits on opposing quarterbacks.
The Cowboys’ offensive line will have their hands full with Judon, who although is listed as a linebacker, has been wreaking havoc in the running game and pass rush. The Cowboys would be wise to run away from Judon. He is second in the league in sack totals and tied for first in tackles for loss. If the Cowboys can slow down Judon, a tall task, the rest of the matchup in the trenches leans in their favor.
As promised, something extra. Keep an eye on Connor McGovern. Kellen Moore has used him as a short-yardage fullback. I have to believe they have a goal-line play-action pass where McGovern sneaks out into the flat and is left all alone. Who else better to pull off a play like this against, than Bill Belichick, who has proven a love for utilizing the forgotten suspect on goal-line passes.
New England Patriots vs Dallas Cowboys Gut Prediction
Prediction: Cowboys 24, Patriots 14
This could be the first game that we see the offense slowed down slightly. Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore has been great so far, but Belichick always has a way to slow down the young guns. I think we see a bit more tough sledding than the first five weeks. It may also be the first time the defense is leaned on more than normal to close out the game.
The Patriots only allowed 206 passing yards per game and 111 rushing yards per game. Their defense is absolutely what keeps them in games. That said, while they may slow down the Cowboys, but I don’t know if any defense in the league can completely stonewall all of their talent for four quarters. The Cowboys find second-half success with a few scores.
Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard combine for somewhere around 120 rushing yards in what is a bit of a grind but needed to convert third downs and keep the Patriots defense honest. Dak will bounce back from the two-turnover performance of last week and protect the ball to avoid giving the Patriots offense a much-needed short field. I like Prescott delivering late for a clutch touchdown to put this thing out of reach.
On the other side, Mac Jones has shown a bit of tendency to turn the ball over. He has five touchdowns and interceptions apiece to this point. The Cowboys’ defense is confident and I suspect they force two turnovers in Foxborough. One thing to watch is if the Patriots rookie quarterback tests Trevon Diggs and gives him the chance to go for six straight games with an interception.
With the running backs a bit banged up for the Patriots, Jones may have to shoulder more of the load. If the Cowboys can force him into obvious passing situations, I think the ever-improving defensive line and back seven fluster him a bit with the scheme and blitz packages of defensive coordinator, Dan Quinn.
I think that the six-game skid against the Patriots ends this Sunday. The Cowboys leave with a confidence booster of going on the road and pick one up in a tough environment. This is a game that isn’t as simple as 4-1 vs 2-3 and I think we see a bit more of a dogfight, but this team seems to have the mentality that they are ready for it. The Dallas Cowboys leave Week Six at 5-1 with an even larger grasp on the NFC East and enter the bye with a place in the “who’s who” of the NFL.