The Dallas Cowboys are guaranteed a spot in the 2023-24 NFL playoffs, but heading into Week 18 action, how are they going to strategize who they might end up playing in the Wild Card round? The San Francisco 49ers will be starting Sam Darnold this weekend against the Los Angeles Rams, and have wrapped up the top seed in the NFC. The highest seed the Cowboys can attain is the no. 2 seed, and they can't get any lower than the no. 5 seed.
That means Dallas will play the 7th seed in the Wild Card round, the 6th seed, or the 4th seed, and there are a variety of potential matchups within those possibilities. What would be an ideal scenario for Dallas? Which matchups would be easiest, and which would be the toughest?
4. Whoever wins the NFC South
Whoever ends up winning the NFC South -- the Saints, Falcons or Buccaneers -- would almost undoubtedly be the "easiest" first-round opponent the Cowboys could possibly have.
Whichever one of the teams makes the postseason is not going to have a quarterback who has really "been there, done that" in terms of the playoffs, although If you had to individually rank these teams in the order you'd rather play them individually, it would probably look like this:
- Atlanta Falcons
- New Orleans Saints
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I think it would be somewhat of an ugly scenario for the Cowboys to lose on Sunday and then have to go to Tampa Bay to play the Bucs. And the New Orleans Saints have been hot and cold all season long, so that's not exactly a team you'd want to go on the road to face, either.
Dallas might be hoping the Falcons win the NFC South, but I think this first-round matchup would arguably be the "easiest" for Dallas, and not all of these would be road matchups. It's possible the Cowboys could host the Saints, who have a shot at the 7th seed as well.
Regardless of the "how", I think you can safely say that whatever teams come out of the NFC South, though slightly unpredictable, are likely the "easiest" potential first-round matchups for the Cowboys.
3. Seattle Seahawks
As of right now, the Seattle Seahawks are actually out of playoff contention. But thankfully for Seattle, the season doesn't end today, it ends after all the madness on Sunday. The Seahawks have not looked like a playoff team for the majority of the season, so if they somehow back into a playoff spot, I think it's obviously in Dallas' favor to win on Sunday and get that no. 2 overall seed in the NFC.
The Cowboys have already beaten the Seattle Seahawks once this season, and there is a little something weird about that when it comes to having to play a team twice, but I think on paper this is arguably the easiest potential Wild Card matchup for Dallas. The fact that the Cowboys have already beaten the Seahawks is the only reason why I didn't place it as the easiest, because it's always hard to beat an opponent twice in the NFL.
But on paper, this is a matchup the Dallas Cowboys would absolutely take.
The Seahawks started this season 5-2 and finished 8-8. They were similarly hot to start last season and cold to finish out the year before getting blasted by the 49ers in the postseason.
The teams the Seahawks have beaten since their 5-2 start include the hapless Washington Commanders and Tennessee Titans. Even with a quality win over the Philadelphia Eagles and hanging with the Cowboys in a 41-35 shootout, I think this has to be considered one of the more favorable first-round options for Dallas.
2. Los Angeles Rams
I don't care if you're the Dallas Cowboys, or just about anyone else -- I don't think you want to be playing the Los Angeles Rams these days.
The Rams have won six of their last seven games. Their only loss was an overtime thriller against the Baltimore Ravens in which the Ravens got a punt return touchdown in overtime to win it. And that game was played in Baltimore.
Sean McVay has his team ready to play these days. The Rams may have started off a little slower than they'd hoped, but they have been showing flashes of brilliance all season, and they've put it together in the second half. Since the Rams already clinched a playoff spot, they are starting Carson Wentz in the final week of the season, meaning they're happy with the 6th or 7th seed. They get one of them.
One of the biggest reasons why I think you want to avoid playing the Rams, especially early, is the fact that they were Super Bowl champs just two seasons ago. People easily forget that this team won it all recently, and while the majority of the roster has taken on a ton of change, you still have a Super Bowl winning coach and quarterback who are on the same page.
I don't think Dallas really wants to be playing the Rams right away if possible.
1. Green Bay Packers
Out of the realistic first-round matchups for the Dallas Cowboys, I think the idea of playing against the Green Bay Packers is one that I like the least.
Over the last month or so, the Packers have beaten teams like Kansas City and Detroit. They've got so many good weapons and the Packers are getting healthy on both sides of the ball.
Aaron Jones returned to the lineup this past weekend against the Vikings to run for 120 yards. Star rookie tight end Luke Musgrave is expected back soon. The Packers are ramping up stud second-year receiver Christian Watson. Jordan Love is playing well with 34 total touchdowns in his first year as the starter in place of Aaron Rodgers.
Defensively, the Packers have studs at every level. They get after the quarterback with waves of pass rush, they have speed at linebacker, and the secondary recently welcomed back Jaire Alexander.
The Packers may not be perfect, but they're getting healthy at the right time and they have hung with some of the league's best teams this season. If I'm the Cowboys, the idea of playing the Rams or the Packers in round one would absolutley have me rooting for teams like Seattle and the NFC South squads.