It's never a given that the Dallas Cowboys are any other team that wins their division will come back and win it again next season, and the NFC East is a prime example of that. The last team to win the division in back-to-back seasons was back when the Eagles reigned supreme under Andy Reid from 2001 to 2004.
Ever since that time, the NFC East has been up for grabs each season, and this season is no different with the Cowboys and Giants looking to dethrone the Eagles.
Dallas looks like to team that is best built to do just that, but there are always mitigating factors that come into play that can either enhance their chances or derail them entirely. In a perfect world, it would just be the best team at the time wins but these factors could come into play for better or worse for the Cowboys.
Let's take a look at a few of them now starting with three reasons the Cowboys will win the division and two main reasons that would lead to Dallas not being able to dethrone the reigning NFC East champions.
1. Reason Cowboys will win NFC East: Rival rising stars come back down to earth
No matter how you look at it, last season both Jalen Hurts and Daniel Jones played some really good football in contract years for their respective teams and both were paid handsomely for it this offseason.
With both QBs collecting second contracts, the focus shifts to whether they can continue to improve on their 2022 performance or if they start to regress a little bit in 2023. Both Hurts and Jones saw their completion percentage and turnovers drop last season, which resulted in better overall outcomes for their teams.
Incredibly, the Giants made the playoffs and upset the Vikings in the first round, while the Eagles advance all the way to the Super Bowl.
Dak Prescott | Daniel Jones | Jalen Hurts |
|---|---|---|
2022 Completion Percentage 66.2 | 2022 Completion Percentage 67.2 | 2022 Completion Percentage 66.5 |
2022 Total Turnovers - 16 | 2022 Total Turnovers - 11 | 2022 Total Turnovers - 13 |
Some factors could lead to both Hurts and Jones regressing, and in turn open up an avenue for the Cowboys to come in and win the division.
For Hurts, that will be whether or not Philly's new offensive coordinator's scheme is a fit for what Hurts does best, and if the running game minus Miles Sanders can have the same success it did last season. It's not out of the realm of possibility that the two don't mesh well and the running game isn't effective and it leads to more rushed or hurried passes from Hurts, which got him in trouble early in his career.
As for Jones, he's still waiting to see if his most effective offensive weapon in Saquon Barkley will even take the field. If the Giants rely on him to make plays down field without Barkley teams will be able to attack a still growing and improving offensive line which could then cause him to regress in the turnover department.
2. Reason Cowboys will win NFC East: Dallas' run defense catches up to the pass defense
For years, the Cowboys defense has either been good or great at rushing the passer and at times defending the pass. The one area that they've continually had issues, though, is stopping the run. A lot of that had to do with Rod Marinelli's philosophy of finding smaller defensive tackles that can get off the ball fast enough to affect the running game and rush the passer.
Under Dan Quinn that philosophy has changed in a big way, with the team drafting Quinton Bohanna, signing Johnathan Hankins, and now drafting Mazi Smith to add considerable size in the middle of this defense. Now with that size, the Cowboys are hoping that their run defense catches up to the rest of the defense.
Last season teams averaged 4.4 yards per carry and 129.3 rushing yards a game against the Cowboys. Now with a solid rotation of plus-300-pound defensive tackles, Dallas' run defense is poised to make a considerable jump.
If they're able to match the production that their pass rush and secondary have had the last few seasons then it would make this defense one of the best overall in the league and immediately make them a favorite for the NFC East title and a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
3. Reason Cowboys will win NFC East: Mike McCarthy and Brian Schottenheimer are in sync
The time of Kellen Moore as the Cowboys offensive coordinator is finally over and with uncertainty looming around what the Texas Coast offense will look like under Mike McCarthy, we can't help but wonder if his philosophy and Brian Schottenheimer's with mesh well together.
We already saw what happens when you have two offensive-minded coaches try to meld their ideas together, and that ended with them at odds with each other during Moore's tenure. That experiment ended with Moore leaving and landing with the Chargers.
Both were fundamentally at odds with each other from the outset of their pairing, but with McCarthy and Schottenheimer, they seemingly are more in sync on what they want to see from their offense on the field.
Both want to establish the running game early in order to use play-action, both shy away from routes that require receivers to open up toward the quarterback and instead want to hit receivers while they are on the move. That's a nice starting point as they install a new offense that they hope is better suited to help the entire offense and give Prescott the best chance to succeed in 2023.
1. Reason Cowboys won't win NFC East: Pass rush takes a step back
If there's one area the Cowboys really can't afford to see a decline in production that would be in the pass rush department. They already have issues stopping the run and if their pass rush were to regress then this defense will be at the mercy of every offense in the league.
With the offense still learning a new scheme Dallas can't afford to have the pass rush regress, especially with the talent the currently have on the roster at pass rusher. Micah Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence, Sam Williams, Dante Fowler Jr. and Dorance Armstrong collectively need to get the job done.
The Cowboys' pass rush is really the best asset this defense has and whether it be because of an injury or teams adjusting to Dan Quinn's schemes, if this group takes a step back it will ultimately affect Dallas' offense as well and that can't happen if they want to have any chance of winning the NFC East.
2. Reason Cowboys won't win NFC East: They get too fancy along the offensive line
Much like the Cowboys pass rush, if their offensive line isn't effective then they are going to struggle winning the NFC East.
The biggest reason this could happen is if the team gets too fancy with their lineup, they need to focus on putting the best group on the field and that begins in training camp. They can tinker a little bit -- all teams do -- but overall this group will need as much time together as possible, especially on the left side of the line after Tyron Smith missed most of last season.
The Cowboys need to give whoever they decide will start at left guard the time to get comfortable with his left tackle and center pass offs and combination blocks. They also need to make sure that Terence Steele is completely healthy and ready to go before letting him step foot on the field.
If that means sliding Tyron Smith over there until he's ready then do it. This coaching staff is already dealing with the installation of a new scheme, they can't be worried about the people responsible for blocking