The Cowboys are an NFL franchise that lives and dies by the draft. Instead of building around veteran free agents like many teams, Dallas prefers the more cost-effective approach of young players working on rookie deals.
Such a roster building strategy is great for cap mangers trying to stay under budget. It’s not so great for coaches and general managers hellbent on winning now.
But the Cowboys are not the typical franchise and since their GM also happens to be their owner, job security isn’t a problem for the top decision maker. Jerry Jones isn’t afraid to gamble on rookie contributors. He’s perfectly fine rolling into draft weekend with seemingly more needs than draft resources available to fill said needs. 2024 serving as a shining example.
The Cowboys entered the weekend affair needing high-impact players at left tackle, center, running back, linebacker, defensive tackle and receiver. With only three picks in the top 100, it was clear they’d need to get creative and would likely be forced to skip over more than a couple massive needs in the process. As luck would have it Dallas traded back in the first round, netting an extra pick the top 100 and helping them check off an extra need on their nearly impossible check list.
Picking in the back of the order didn’t do them any favors in addressing their immediate needs either. Project players were aplenty, and expectations were set accordingly. To catch up on those original expectations be sure to read Grading the Cowboys Draft: risk-value assessment and expectations.
But have those expectations changed?
Has the first six weeks of the season changed the way Cowboys Nation feels about their rookies?
That’s what we dive into today. We go draft pick by draft pick, reviewing everyone’s draft day expectations, how the first portion of the year has gone for them and finally discuss whether or not expectations have changed.
Round 1, Pick 29: LT Tyler Guyton
Draft day expectations: The selection of Tyler Guyton wasn’t met much fanfare or praise, but it involved a trade back that garnered and extra top 100 pick and addressed a direct need in the process. Guyton was seen as a developmental prospect who was both high risk and high reward.
Guyton’s film left something to be desired. The Oklahoma RT was sloppy and unrefined. Based on that alone he looked like an NFL longshot. But projections are about unrealized potential as much as realized ability. The 6-foot-7, 322-pound OT had size, length and athletic ability that can’t be taught. It seemed if the Cowboys would be patient, and Guyton put in the work, he might one day develop into a franchise LT for the Cowboys.
Bye week review: Up until Week 6, Tyler Guyton has been serving as the Dallas Cowboys starting left tackle. Mike McCarthy had made a concentrated effort to protect the 23-year-old rookie by moving extra blockers in his direction and rolling Dak Prescott to the opposite side as much as possible.
Even with the help Guyton has struggled in many of the same ways he did in college. Despite only playing in five games this season, he’s given up 13 pressures and four sacks. PFF graded Guyton 70th of 76 OTs in 2024. It’s not surprising he was effectively benched in Week 6.
Adjusted expectations: Guyton was always a questionable pick and an enormous gamble for Dallas to make so his expectations don’t really change much. Assuming he gets back on the field this season and continues his “development,” Guyton should be on pace as the long-term project player he was drafted to be. If Dallas doesn’t force him back on the field his development likely stalls.
Round 2, Pick 56: DE Marshawn Kneeland
Draft day expectations: Most will agree, Marshawn Kneeland was drafted to be the heir to DeMarcus Lawrence as the base DE in Dallas. Kneeland was seen as an extremely powerful prospect who possessed untapped pass rush skills.
Much like Lawrence, he looked like someone who could be an elite run stopper and a solid pass rusher. Kneeland was a high value pick with a clear path to starting and a low risk of bust.
Bye week review: Kneeland was supposed to be nothing more than a rotational player, working behind the likes of Sam Williams, Micah Parsons and Lawrence in 2024, but injuries to all three thrust him into the limelight whether he was ready or not.
For the most part, Kneeland looked solid in his 111 defensive snaps. He didn’t offer up much statistically but he looked the part and clearly had all the physical traits of a starting NFL DE. A meniscus injury has landed the rookie temporarily on IR, slowing his development and postponing his assessment.
Adjusted expectations: Like Guyton, expectations for Kneeland are essentially the same. Assuming he can get back into the fold and restart his development, Kneeland should be able to get back on pace. He looks every bit the base DE he was billed to be and should still be seen as the starter next season when Lawrence likely leaves.
Round 3, Pick 73: OC Cooper Beebe
Draft day expectations: Cooper Beebe was a tough evaluation at Kansas State because he played a completely different position in college than he would in the pros. It added a degree of difficulty to his film review and made many of the scouting reports null and void since they were grading him as an NFL guard prospect rather than a center.
With that said there was an immediate opening for Beebe in the starting ranks on the Cowboys and his primary weakness at guard, short arms, would be less of an issue playing center. As such, Beebe entered the season with tremendous expectations as a rookie and brought with him a Pro Bowl ceiling in the long-term.
Bye week review: Beebe has been arguably the Cowboys best rookie this season and is well on his way to reaching that lofty ceiling once set. As a first-time OC, Beebe is still a below average performer but that was expected in Year 1. His 413 snaps on offense give him the second most on the roster.
Adjusted expectations: Beebe has given up eight pressures and two sacks in 2024 which is probably higher than many envisioned playing between two All-Pro guards. If Tyler Smith doesn’t move back to LG after the bye, Beebe will be faced with a few extra challenges. The challenges might help in the long term but not so much in the here and now.
Round 3, Pick 87: LB Marist Liufau
Draft day expectations: Liufau seemed like a headscratcher to Cowboys Nation but he was seen as a virtual steal to the Cowboys brass. The Notre Dame LB was a darling of the scouting department and someone Dallas was targeting from the jump.
Liufau didn’t have a clear path to the starting lineup in 2024 and would have to beat out veteran players if hoped to contribute. Spoiler alert: he did.
Bye week review: With 155 defensive snaps, Liufau is third among Dallas LBs through six weeks. It didn’t take him long to leapfrog Damone Clark in the lineup and the future looks bright for the rookie in coming weeks.
Liufau hasn’t been perfect in his run fits and he’s felt the pain of the Cowboys underachieving defensive line as he’s taken on far too many offensive linemen this season. But overall, Liufau appears to have an extra gear to his game and plays with a motor that rivals DeMarvion Overshown, which is an enormous compliment to give.
Adjusted expectations: Unlike the previous three rookies, Liufau’s expectations are higher today than on draft day. Liufau wasted no time stealing meaningful snaps, he’s shown he has the physical qualities needed to play in the NFL and should now come with Pro Bowl expectations for down the road.
Round 5, Pick 174: CB Caelen Carson
Draft day expectations: Caelen Carson was a pick most scouts and fans loved for the Cowboys. Carson presented tremendous value in the fifth round and addressed a lowkey need at CB for Dallas. Carson was a player would provide depth as a rookie and with luck a starting quality ceiling down the road.
Bye week review: As fortune would have it, a preseason injury to DaRon Bland thrust Carson immediately into the spotlight. Like most rookie CBs, Carson struggled as a starter. Throwing him to fire did little to help his development and a shoulder injury that has kept him out in recent weeks only made it worse.
Carson is expected back soon, as is Bland, so it’s likely Carson will ease back into things and get back onto that developmental arch he was supposed to be on from the start.
Adjusted expectations: Carson hasn’t looked great this season, which is somewhat to be expected. He looked a little apprehensive and ill-prepared to take the field in Week 1 which was disappointing to many. Carson is still a decent CB4 to have this season and will likely assume that role going forward. His ceiling remains the same long term, but the timeline has been pushed right a bit.
Round 6, Pick 216: WR Ryan Flournoy
Draft day expectations: Ryan Flournoy was an athletic freak who projected as a developmental homerun swing from the scouting department. Coming from tiny SEMO, he faced an enormous leap to the NFL and generally looked like he’d be a multiyear practice squad player with long-term potential to make a roster.
Bye week update: Flournoy surprised a lot of people in training camp and preseason games. He flashed playmaker qualities and looked perfectly able to make the leap to the pros. Fearing they’d lose him, the Cowboys gave him a roster spot on the 53 where he’s remained ever since.
Flournoy’s debut wasn’t a great one – to put it mildly. He made his first NFL reception promptly followed by his first NFL fumble.
Adjusted expectations: Flournoy, like Liufau, has significantly raised expectations six weeks into his professional career. Just making the 53-man roster is an accomplishment. Fumble aside, the future looks decent for the young WR. His speed, size and strength make him a candidate at the X spot and since that’s often the hardest WR spot to fill, it gives him a reasonable path to more opportunities.
Conclusion
While some people had extremely high hopes for Tyler Guyton out of the gate, the consensus was he was a project player with bust potential. He played at a position of need which added to his value and boosted his expectations, but his struggles aren’t remotely surprising. Expectations drop slightly since he essentially got benched as a semi-healthy scratch, but he should regain his developmental arch if and when he’s reinserted into the starting lineup.
Marshawn Kneeland has equally lived up to the billing. Injuries forced him into the starting lineup too early and his own injury has stunted his development but the second round DE appears to be on track to fulfill all his post draft expectations.
Cooper Beebe looks every bit they guy he was supposed to be. He’s struggled in pass protection but so has the entire Cowboys offensive line. His expectations this year and future seasons all remain the same regardless.
Caelen Carson has jumped out to a somewhat disappointing start, but then again, he was given an extremely difficult task of starting right away in Week 1. Marist Liufau and Ryan Flournoy both exceeded immediate expectations and, based on draft day expectations, should be seen as the top success stories at the bye.
Overall, most of the rookies are at, or near meeting, all their expectations in both the short and long term.