The 2023 NFL Draft is just around the corner, and the Dallas Cowboys have a huge decision to make with the No. 26 overall pick.
This isn’t regarded as an elite draft class by any stretch of the imagination, so Will McClay and the rest of the draft and scout team need to make sure they get this pick right, especially after they struck gold in Tulsa offensive lineman Tyler Smith with the No. 24 overall selection last year.
The importance of netting an impact player in Round 1 cannot be overstated. Throw in the fact that Dallas is on the precipice of competing for a Super Bowl, and the margin for error is paper thin.
We’re not going to pretend we can hold a candle to the Cowboys’ front office, but we think we have a solid understanding of what they shouldn’t do in the first round. With that, here are some disastrous moves they must avoid.
2023 NFL Draft: 3 moves Cowboys must avoid at No. 26 overall
3. Drafting a cornerback or safety
The Cowboys can afford to take the best player available after trading for Stephon Gilmore and Brandin Cooks. It has to be within reason, though. If the highest player on their board is a tight end or Alabama safety Brian Branch, for example, maybe take the highest receiver, defensive lineman, or edge rusher available.
Again, within reason.
CBS’ Chris Trapasso recently mocked Branch to the Cowboys. This would be a nightmare scenario for Dallas after they re-signed Donovan Wilson.
Yes, Jayron Kearse and Malik Hooker are entering the final year of their contracts, but that doesn’t mean the team should spend a first-round pick on their eventual replacements. And who’s to say neither player re-signs?
Unless Penn State corner Joey Porter Jr. endures an unforeseen slide, Dallas shouldn’t consider using the No. 26 pick on its secondary. With Gilmore, Trevon Diggs, Wilson, Kearse, Hooker, DaRon Bland, Jourdan Lewis and Israel Mukuamu in tow, the secondary is already eight players deep.
Having an eye on the future is smart roster-building, but Dallas should wait until the second round or later to add to their secondary.
2. Ending the Quentin Johnston fall
At 6-foot-3 and 208 pounds with 4.5 speed and a great vertical, Johnston is a tremendous athlete. The TCU product is widely regarded as WR1 in this year’s class and could end up being a top-15 pick when all is said and done.
It’s unlikely Johnston falls out of the first round entirely, but it speaks volumes he’s plummeted on multiple analysts’ big boards. He’s the No. 25 overall player for The Athletic’s Dane Brugler, while ESPN’s Mel Kiper has him at No. 24 and NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah has him all the way down at No. 29.
Does that scream WR1 to you? Johnston doesn’t play with the physicality you’d expect from a receiver with his intangibles. His eight contested catches last season ranked 117th amongst wideouts, per PFF. He also logged an 11.8% drop rate, which was one of the highest drop rates at the position. He dropped eight passes in total, which means he had more drops than touchdowns (six).
Johnston could be another in a long list of wideouts who struggles to make an immediate impact in the NFL. That’s not what the Cowboys or Dak Prescott need. The former Horned Frog would benefit greatly from an accurate deep-ball thrower, and that’s not what Prescott does well.
1. Trading up for Bijan Robinson
The general media is quite literally begging Dallas to trade up for Bijan Robinson. It’s almost surprising when we go a week without multiple mock drafts having the Cowboys moving up to take the Texas running back.
NFL Network’s Eric Edholm had Dallas trading up to No. 19 overall to take Robinson in a recent mock. The terms of the trade weren’t disclosed (surprise, surprise), but it in all likelihood cost the Cowboys the No. 58 overall pick or the No. 90 overall pick.
It’s growing in popularity among analysts as well, with ESPN’s Ryan Clark becoming the latest to bang the Bijan-to-Dallas table.
"“When you get a running back in the first round, their production over the first five years, it automatically is 32 percent higher than anyone drafted in the second or later. The problem is giving them that second contract,” Clark said. “But if you go out and you get Bijan Robinson, you have a 1-2 punch along with Tony Pollard that Dak Prescott the presence he needs in the backfield to take that next step and get back to who he was two years ago.”"
Clark makes strong points, but there’s no rationalizing trading up for a running back, regardless of how great of a prospect Robinson is and especially since it would cost another high-quality pick. This roster doesn’t have many remaining holes, but that doesn’t mean Dallas can afford to trade away picks willy nilly.
This RB class is as deep as any in recent memory. The Cowboys are one of the best drafting teams in the league and should be able to find another plug-and-play back somewhere else in the draft, potentially as late as the fourth round.
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