The biggest question looming over the Dallas Cowboys this offseason is the future of Ezekiel Elliott. Yes, fixing Dak Prescott, or at least getting him back to being more responsible with the football, should top the list, but there’s no conversation to be had about Prescott’s future with the organization.
Elliott is a different story.
Seemingly seeing the writing on the wall, Elliott has already expressed a willingness to take a pay cut to return to Dallas in 2023. As of this writing, the three-time Pro Bowler carries a $16.72 million cap hit for next year. Only Prescott, DeMarcus Lawrence, Zack Martin and Tyron Smith carry bigger numbers.
In other words, Elliott will be more expensive than Micah Parsons, CeeDee Lamb, Jayron Kearse, Trevon Diggs and Osa Odighizuwa.
The idea of keeping the 27-year-old on a reduced salary might resonate with the front office, but here’s why it’d be insane to do so.
3 reasons Cowboys cannot keep Ezekiel Elliott in 2023
3. Cowboys could simply draft his replacement
The Bijan Robinson discourse isn’t slowing down anytime soon, especially after ESPN draft expert Mel Kiper Jr. projected the Texans phenom to the Cowboys at No. 26 overall in his latest mock draft. A large contingent of fans would like to see Dallas draft Robinson if it meant parting ways with Elliott.
The Cowboys’ rushing attack wasn’t great down the stretch of the regular season, but the offensive line is plenty good enough to support a rookie back.
Whether it’s a combination of Tony Pollard, Malik Davis, and a third/fourth-round rookie, Bijan Robinson and Malik Davis, or something along those lines, there is a world that exists where Dallas running game survives without Elliott.
In fact, it was better without him this year.
The 2022 running back class showed great potential this season, and not a single one was drafted in the first round: Breece Hall (second), Kenneth Walker (second), James Cook (second), Brian Robinson (third), Rachaad White (fourth), Dameon Pierce (fourth), Tyler Allgeier (fifth), and Isiah Pacheco (seventh).
You can find value in every round. Bijan is a potential superstar from Day 1, but there are ample backs the Cowboys could draft to replace Elliott.
2. Cap savings will allow for roster building
It’s really this simple: cutting Elliott would pave the way for two or three additional signings in free agency.
If releasing the former All-Pro running back meant keeping, say, Leighton Vander Esch or Donovan Wilson, what would you say? While Jerry Jones might have to think about it, it’s the clearest no brainer of all-time.
If the Cowboys cut Elliott before June 1, they’ll accrue $11.86 million in dead money, while saving just $4.86 million against the cap. As a post June 1 cut, which have grown in popularity over the years, Dallas would absorb a manageable $5.82 million dead cap charge, while saving a healthy $10.9 million in cap space.
You can do a lot with $10.9 million in the NFL with how easy it is to find loopholes and manipulate the salary cap. Again, you could be talking about keeping a key free agent (Tony Pollard, anybody?) or bringing in an outsider who’ll help the team win.
Bottom line? It’d be franchise malpractice to look at his production and the potential cap savings if he got cut and the Cowboys still kept him. This roster has needs at wide receiver, cornerback, and defensive tackle, to name a few.
1. Production/efficiency isn’t worth it anymore
It’d be one thing for the Cowboys to keep a declining player if they were still producing at a high level. The the thing is Elliott is a shell of his former self. That can be attributed to the ridiculous mileage on his tires and the beating he’s taken between the tackles over his seven years as Dallas’ starting running back.
Coming into 2022, Zeke tallied 1,650 carries in his career. That averages out to 275 attempts per season. It’s almost unprecedented. The only running back who even has a comparable workload is Derrick Henry, and he didn’t surpass 300 carries until his fourth season in 2019, when he first won the rushing crown.
Elliott still runs hard and is awesome near the goal line. His 12 rushing touchdowns ranked fourth at the position.
That, sadly, is basically all he was good for this season. Over the last six games, Elliott averaged 2.60 yards per carry (82 carries for 213 yards). That’s a large sample size, and there’s no evidence to suggest he’ll turn it around in 2023.
This doesn’t paper over what Zeke accomplished in his prime, but this season proved he’s past it, and the production isn’t conducive to winning and maintaining a healthy salary cap, even on a reduced salary.
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