The Dallas Cowboys already clinched a playoff berth, but their win in Tennessee, coupled with a few favorable results from the Sunday slate, means they still have everything to play for in the Week 18 finale against Washington.
As far as the NFC is concerned, six of the seven playoff tickets have been punched. The Giants clinched by beating the Colts, and are locked into the No. 6 seed regardless of what happens this Sunday, while the Buccaneers locked up the middling NFC South with a second half comeback vs the Panthers.
The only vacancy left to fill is the final wild card slot, which three teams — the Packers, Seahawks, and Lions — are vying for.
That could impact the Cowboys depending on what happens in Week 18. As of this writing, it’s unclear what seed Dallas will have. The good news is mostly everything came up Cowboys this weekend, so Mike McCarthy’s squad faces three potential seeding scenarios entering the final week of the season.
Let’s analyze them in order of least likely to most likely, shall we?
Breaking down Cowboys 3 potential playoff scenarios
1. Cowboys sneak their way to the No. 1 seed
This is obviously the least-likely scenario. Along with the Cowboys, the Eagles and 49ers are in contention for the NFC’s top seed. For Dallas to nab the coveted seed — and thereby a first-round bye and home-field advantage through the playoffs — they have to beat Washington, and the Eagles and Niners to lose.
That’s a tall ask for the Cowboys. While Philly is reeling, they play a Giants team that has the luxury of being able to rest its starters. Even if New York plays its studs, chances are Jalen Hurts is back under center for the Eagles.
The 49ers losing is much more unlikely, as they’ll play a depleted Cardinals team. San Francisco opened as 13.5 point favorites for the game. Nick Bosa and company need to beat Arizona and Philly to lose to claim the top seed.
The Eagles, meanwhile, get the No. 1 seed if they simply beat the Giants, or the Cowboys and 49ers both lose their finales. That’s the unquestioned easiest path of the three. Suppose that’s the benefit of starting the year 13-1, right?
2. Cowboys swipe the No. 2 seed from 49ers
In order for Dallas to nab the No. 2 seed, they need to handle business against Washington, the Eagles to lose and San Francisco to win. In this scenario, the Cowboys win the division and host a game on Wild Card Weekend. The kicker, though, is that they’d play one of the Packers, Seahawks, or Lions.
Here’s what each of those squads needs to earn the final wild card berth:
- Packers: Beat the Lions at home. That’s it.
- Lions: Beat Green Bay on the road, plus Seattle to lose (or tie) vs the Rams. They can also sneak in if they tie against the Packers, and the Seahawks lose to Baker Mayfield and the Rams.
- Seahawks: Defeat the Rams, and Lions to beat (or tie) the Packers.
Very complicated stuff. Speaking of which, either one of the Vikings, Eagles and 49ers could end up as the No. 2 seed in addition to Dallas.
The Vikings will see it through if they beat the Bears and the 49ers lose. Whatever happens between the Cowboys and Eagles in Week 18 does NOT impact Minnesota’s quest for the No. 2 seed. They can’t get the No. 1 seed.
The Eagles will get the No. 2 seed if they lose to New York, the Cowboys lose to Washington, and San Francisco beats Arizona. Finally, the 49ers have the second seed if they win, and the Eagles win, or if all three of San Francisco, Philly and Minnesota lose.
Still with us?
1. Cowboys get the No. 5 seed, play the Buccaneers
The Cowboys currently hold the No. 5 seed, and it’d be pretty surprising if it didn’t stay that way through Week 18. In order for this to happen, the Eagles simply win against the Giants (at home), OR the Eagles and Cowboys lose.
In this scenario, Dallas would travel to Tampa Bay for a first-round matchup against the Buccaneers, who are locked into the No. 4 seed as the NFC South champs. This would mark a rematch of the first game of the year, when Tampa Bay beat the Cowboys 19-3 and injured Dak Prescott along the way.
There’s been widespread debate amongst Cowboys analyst in terms of who’d they rather Dallas play in Round 1: Tom Brady and a Bucs team that can’t get out of its own way, or a surging Panthers squad whose physical running game could potentially cause headaches for Dan Quinn’s out-of-form defense.
In a perfect world, you don’t play the greatest quarterback of all-time on the road on Wild Card Weekend, but if there was ever a time to get Brady, it’s now. Their offensive line is ravaged by injuries, the defense isn’t what it once was, and Todd Bowles is a serious decline at head coach relative to Bruce Arians. The offense, meanwhile, has scored more than 20 points just six times this season.
The Cowboys netting the No. 1 seed would be the best-case scenario, but the path to a Super Bowl isn’t going to be easy regardless and beating the GOAT on the road in the first round would be quite the confidence-builder.
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