Cowboys vs Colts Week 13: history, key players, projection

Primetime, baby! The Dallas Cowboys are back in primetime action this weekend once again as they take the field in Sunday Night Football. It goes together a bit like peanut butter and jelly — the Cowboys and late season primetime games.

The ‘Boys are coming into this one off of a long break after handling the Giants on Thanksgiving due to a strong second half from all sides of the ball to pull away. They should be rested, healthy, and in great shape for the stretch run of the final six games.

The Indianapolis Colts are in a bit of a conundrum this year. They fired their head coach, and rather than elevating anyone, they brought in former center Jeff Saturday to coach them. Quarterback Matt Ryan is aging rapidly in front of our eyes, and their offense is becoming increasingly one-dimensional.

This game kicks off a stretch of three in a row against AFC opponents in the Colts, Texans, and Jaguars. Combined, they have nine wins. Dallas has eight wins on their own, and with Dak Prescott back in the saddle, the team should differentiate themselves pretty quickly from the Cooper Rush-led offense. The stats prove Dallas is infinitely better with their leader under center.

These teams are trending in opposite directions right now, but as always, is it still the NFL, and weirder things have happened. Let’s get into the history of America’s Team versus the Colts, a look at some players who could play a big role in this one, and wrap it up with a projection on how this one shakes out.

Cowboys vs Colts: History, key matchups, and prediction

Cowboys vs Colts: Matchup History

All-time Record: 10-7 in favor of the Dallas Cowboys

Most recent result: Indianapolis Colts 23, Dallas Cowboys 0 on December 16, 2018

The last matchup in this series is a rather forgettable one for the Cowboys. In a rarity over the past few years, neither Dak Prescott nor Ezekiel Elliott found the end zone. The Cowboys fell victim to a ground game attack led by Marlon Mack. Just an odd, weird game back in 2018 that this was.

Before that, there was a 42-7 thumping delivered by the Cowboys in 2014 where they dominated in all facets. Tony Romo threw three first-half touchdowns on the way to a dominant victory for the ‘Boys.

This series is a bit streaky. The Colts won three of the first four before the Cowboys rattled off seven straight. After that, the teams have alternated three-game winning streaks. Could Dallas take back the winning streak in this matchup?

Cowboys vs Colts: Weather Outlook

Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington TX

Stadium Type: Dome, artificial turf

Predicted Forecast: High of 70, low of 63, showers in the morning followed by a shower in spots in the afternoon, wind gusts up to 15-16mph, 100% chance of precipitation

The Cowboys get to head back home to AT&T Stadium this weekend for another fully charged up home crowd in back-to-back weeks. This time we see the ‘Boys getting Sunday Night Football in primetime against the Colts.

Unfortunately, the weather outside is looking rather gloomy and not overly ideal for tailgates. That said, those tailgates will still go on and the fans will be there in full force.

Inside the stadium, it is going to be a pristine atmosphere and should set up the teams for a fast track and a lot of points. The roof will be closed, and the end zones likely will as well to eliminate any sort of weather impact.

Cowboys vs Colts: “Under the Radar” Players

This matchup has two teams with strong backfields and offenses that will want to run the ball. The most significant matchup in this one is what the linebacking group can do to slow that down and force these offenses to throw. Each team’s leading tackler is up for discussion this week.

Dallas Cowboys: Leighton Vander Esch, MLB

Leighton Vander Esch is having a bit of a bounce back year right now. After coming back to Dallas, all he has done is lead the Cowboys in tackles with 75 so far. Add in a sack, three tackles for loss, and a forced fumble, and you have a quality season brewing from the Boise State product.

The Colts are not going to disguise it. They will run the ball to Jonathan Taylor to alleviate their passing game with the statue of Matt Ryan in the pocket against the Cowboys’ pass rush. The Colts know they must shorten this game and run the ball well to have a chance. This keeps the Dallas offense, which is showing more and more life each week, off the field and keeps themselves out of long third down situations.

Vander Esch will be cleaning up running lanes against Taylor, and needs to make the tackle the first time to avoid Taylor clearing the second level and using his breakaway speed to make this thing interesting.

Indianapolis Colts: Zaire Frankin, SLB

Feels a bit odd calling the second leading tackler in the NFL “under the radar,” doesn’t it? Well, unfortunately for Zaire Franklin, when you’re on a team in a mid-market city with an underperforming record at a position that isn’t always in the spotlight, your performance can get overlooked.

That said, he is supremely talented. Franklin leads the Colts with 121 tackles, eight of them for loss, and has a sack, three pass deflections, and a forced fumble. He will be all over the field on Sunday night and constantly around the ball.

Dallas has found success from the play-action game as of late, and getting Zeke and Tony Pollard going is fundamental to that. If Franklin disrupts the run game, Dak may be forced into a traditional “drop back and pass” type of game. That isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but it hasn’t been the recipe for the Cowboys since his return.

Cowboys vs Colts: Gut projection

Projection: Dallas Cowboys 34, Indianapolis Colts 17

While the Cowboys top the Colts defensively by allowing just 17 points per game to their 20, the Colts are actually one slot better in the NFL in regard to total yards per game allowed. Dallas allows 309.6 yards, while the Colts just edge them by allowing 308.9 yards per game.

The ‘Boys are the top passing defense in the NFL, surrendering only 177.6 yards per game through the air. The Colts aren’t far behind, though, giving up just 190.6 passing yards per game. The run defense is where there is room for improvement on each team. The Cowboys give up 132 yards per game on the ground, while the Colts allow 118.

The problem for the Colts is scoring. They muster just over two touchdowns per game at a clip of 15.8 points per game on the season. Compare that to Dallas (25.4 points per game on the year, and 33.8 points per game over their last five), and there is a wide disparity of offensive success between these teams.

The recipe for Dallas is simple. They want to run the ball well, keep the defense honest and in vanilla schemes, and hurt them with well-timed play-action passes. Dak wants to find Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb down the field for chunk plays, and utilize his quartet of tight ends in Dalton Schultz, Sean McKeon, Peyton Hendershot, and Jake Ferguson underneath.

Defensively, Dallas and defensive coordinator Dan Quinn know that Jonathan Taylor is the key to success for the Colts. Rely on the run defense once again, and this matchup could turn sideways in a hurry. Should the Cowboys force obvious passing situations, they can rid themselves of any thoughts of a mobile quarterback hurting them. Matt Ryan will be a sitting duck in the pocket.

Micah Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence, Dorance Armstrong, and Sam Williams could all notch a sack in this one if the Cowboys get up early. The Colts lead the league in sacks given up with 43. That number could take another sharp uptick. Trevon Diggs will have an advantage over the Colts receivers, and while he has been a coverage machine, he is eager to get another interception and could be a beneficiary of pressure creating errant throws.

In our estimation, Dallas turns this into a one-sided affair early as the more rested and overall better team playing at home. This game is the first in a stretch of three in a row against the lowly AFC South, and is a great starting point to stack more wins on top of each other on the march to locking up a playoff berth.

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