Dallas Cowboys vs Indianapolis Colts: Week 13 Keys to Victory

Fresh off of their Thanksgiving Day win, the Dallas Cowboys are preparing to face off against an Indianapolis Colts team that currently sports a losing record but has the talent to be a problem for the Cowboys on Sunday night.

Led by former center turned head coach Jeff Saturday, the Colts come into AT&T Stadium looking to beat a Cowboys team that has been playing its best football since the return of Dak Prescott.

With one of the best running backs in the league and the 11th-ranked defense, this will not be as easy of a game as the point spreads may suggest, which currently have the Cowboys opening  as 10.5-point favorites.

The Cowboys should have the advantage from a coaching standpoint, with Mike McCarthy’s extensive amount of experience compared to Saturday’s, a man who’s admitted he’s still learning how to be an NFL head coach. The Cowboys should also have advantages on offense and defense, but we will have to see if they will be able to exploit them.

Cowboys vs. Colts: Week 13 Keys to Victory

Indianapolis Colts at a Glance

All-time record vs Cowboys: 6-10

2022 Record: 4-7-1

2022 Offensive Ranking: 30th out of 32 teams

2022 Defensive Ranking: 11th out of 32 teams

Current Injury List: DE Kwity Paye (ankle), CB Kenny Moore (shin), TE Kylen Granson (illness), WR John Hurst (ankle), LB Shaquille Leonard (IR), CB Armani Watts (IR), C Ryan Kelly (knee)

Most Notable Offensive Players: QB Matt Ryan, RB Jonathan Taylor, WR Michael Pittman Jr., WR Alec Pierce, TE Jelani Woods, WR Parris Campbell

Most Notable Defensive Players: DT DeForest Buckner, S Rodney McLeod, DE Yannick Ngakoue, CB Stephon Gilmore

What We’ve Seen from Colts/Possible Offensive Gameplan Against Dallas

Points Per Game: 15.8

Passing Yards Per Game: 245.5

Rushing Yards Per Game: 99.7

Total Yards Per Game: 345.2

Third Down Conversion Percentage: 36%

Red Zone Conversion Percentage: 45.5%

Colts Offensive Strategy

The Colts are coming off a tough loss against the Steelers on Monday night, and on a short week, they have to turn around and play a red hot Dallas Cowboys team with a high-powered offense and an aggressive defense that leads the league in sacks. This offense that scores an average of 15.8 points per game can’t get off to another slow start the same way they did against the Steelers. The primary issue for the Colts is that their best offensive player is running back Jonathan Taylor, who’s running behind an offensive line that hasn’t been as dominant as we’ve seen them over the last few years.

We know the Colts are going to try and establish their running game in order to get Taylor going and take pressure off quarterback Matt Ryan and this offensive line. The Cowboys have been better against the run the last few weeks, but there’s no doubt the Colts will try to attack their shaky run defense and try to control the clock and keep the Cowboys’ high-powered offense off the field.

Cowboys Defensive Strategy

For the Cowboys, the goal is simple: stop Jonathan Taylor. If you can stop him and force Matt Ryan to win the game, you win. Outside of Tom Brady and Kirk Cousins, Ryan is the one of the least mobile quarterbacks the Cowboys will face all season. Forcing the football into his hand plays right into Dallas’ strength — their pass rush — and behind an underperforming offensive line, pressures and sacks should be easier to come by in this game. That will lead to more possible turnovers from a quarterback who has thrown 10 interceptions and had 14 fumbles this season.

But for all of this to happen, the Cowboys’ defensive tackles need to win at the point of attack and hold their blocks to give the Dallas linebackers and safeties the opportunity to make a play before Taylor can get to the second level. At that point, he can use his 4.3 speed to break away from defenders.

What We’ve Seen from Colts/Possible Defensive Gameplan Against Dallas

Opponents’ Points Per Game: 20.3

Opponents’ Passing Yards Per Game: 190.6

Opponents’ Rushing Yards Per Game: 118.3

Opponents’ Total Yards Per Game: 308.9

Opponents’ Third Down Conversion Percentage: 35.7%

Opponents’ Red Zone Conversion Percentage: 59.4%

Colts Defensive Strategy

The Colts field one of the better defenses in the league, but over the last few games they haven’t been able to stop the run, giving up 416 yards and four rushing touchdowns over a span of three games. With the Cowboys having two very good running backs in Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard ready to go, the Colts have the potential to see both of those numbers increase. The other issue for the Colts will be the injury to starting cornerback Kenny Moor,e who went down with a shin issue on Monday.

Dak Prescott will be primed to attack whoever is on that side of the field instead of taking risks against the veteran Stephon Gilmore. This leaves the Colts with only one option in this game: win the line of scrimmage, stop the run and put pressure on Prescott. If they can’t, it’s going to be a long day for a defense that has kept this team in games, with Indy’s offense scoring on just 29.6% of their drives this season. Compare that to a Cowboys offensive attack which has scored on 40.5% of their offensive possessions, and it’s clear Indy’s playing a lesser game.

Cowboys Offensive Strategy

In order to keep that 40.5% number up, offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is going to need to continue balancing his passing and rushing plays, something he has done well since Prescott’s return. Over the last three games, Moore has been able to keep this Cowboys offense fairly balanced, rushing the football 92 times and passing 111 times. That balanced play calling will need to continue if they want to win this game and make noise in the playoffs.

Now, for his part, Prescott needs to continue to be smart with the football and take what the defense gives him without forcing the issue. He’s thrown four interceptions over the last three games, much of that being due to miscommunications between himself and his receivers. They should be able to fix the communication issues, but overall, in order for the Cowboys to win, they need Moore to continue deploying his balanced play calling and Prescott to protect the football.

Do that, and the Cowboys will easily win this game. If not, they will have to work and come from behind, much like the Eagles did when they faced the Colts two weeks ago.

Predicting the rest of the 2022 Cowboys schedule after Thanksgiving

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