5 reasons the Cowboys will beat the Colts in Week 13

Thanksgiving is behind us, as the Dallas Cowboys improved to 8-3 on the season with a win over the New York Giants. They now face the Indianapolis Colts in Week 13, who come off a Monday Night Football loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Dallas is in the toughest division in the NFC right now, as all four teams would be in the playoffs if the season ended today. For that reason, they can’t afford any slip-ups against teams they’re better than — as was the case when they lost to the Green Bay Packers.

That shouldn’t be a problem here, as the Cowboys have several advantages. Here are five reasons to believe win No. 9 is on the way.

5 reasons the Cowboys will beat the Colts in Week 13

5. Cowboys have a major coaching advantage

It’s kind of hard not to feel for Jeff Saturday. The Colts added him as their interim coach, and the decision was controversial for several reasons, including the fact that he has no experience whatsoever (above an unsuccessful stint in high school). While there are plenty of reasons to hate the hire, no one is turning down the opportunity he was given. We can’t blame him for shooting for the moon.

Unfortunately, it’s already clear he’s not ready for this role. He’s 1-2, as he’s lost to the Eagles and Steelers after defeating the Raiders in his debut. The impressive part is that his team has been close in each game, but they have failed to close things out, and Saturday’s inexperience is a major reason for that.

As for Dallas, they have a Super Bowl-winning coach roaming their sidelines in Mike McCarthy. He’s coached a total of 248 games in 16 years. He’s also won 10 playoff games with nine losses — meaning he has three times as many losses in the playoffs as Saturday has experience on an NFL sideline in any coaching capacity.

The Colts might be able to hang with Dallas for a while, as they did in their past two games, but in the end, coaching matters. The home team has a huge advantage there.

4. Matt Ryan is washed

There was a time when Matt Ryan was one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. The third overall pick out of Boston College back in 2008, Ryan was tasked with replacing Mike Vick for the Atlanta Falcons. He did that well, as he led them to a record of 120-102 in 14 seasons and nearly won a title following the 2016 campaign.

Ryan was the MVP of the league that season, and had it not been for some questionable play-calling down the stretch of the Super Bowl, he might have added that Lombardi Trophy as well. Even without the title, he has 62,377 yards with 378 touchdowns in his 15-year career.

As impressive as all that is, the Ryan that now plays for the Colts is not the same player we saw in Atlanta. At 37 years old, that’s expected — unless you’re talking about Tom Brady — which is why Atlanta moved on this offseason.

In 10 starts for the Colts, Ryan is 4-5-1 and hasn’t performed very well. He was struggling so much that Sam Elhinger was brought in by Frank Reich, although Ryan was reinstated when Saturday took over.

Ryan’s inability to push the ball downfield limits this offense and allows defenses to crowd the line of scrimmage, which has, at times, slowed Jonathan Taylor down. He’s also made several mistakes, including 10 picks on the season, and lost a key fumble in the red zone in their recent loss to Pittsburgh.

Dallas has a very opportunistic defense that has 45 sacks on the quarterback — which is a terrible sign for the immobile Ryan.

One area they haven’t been as good at this season is intercepting the ball, but that could change as Ryan feels the heat, giving the Cowboys a huge advantage.

3. Dallas is well rested, Indy will not be

There are those who hate that the Cowboys are always playing on Thanksgiving Day, as it gives them a mini-bye in late November every season. Of course, other teams get this as well when they’re on any other Thursday Night Football game, but everything this team does gets criticized.

Having said that, the Cowboys are coming off a mid-week game, which gives them 10 days before having to take the field against the Colts. They also don’t have to travel since they played at AT&T Stadium during the holiday — which is another contention for those who think the Thanksgiving game should be alternated. That’s never happening, though, because America’s Team draws millions of eyes to their game every year on Turkey Day, and the NFL likes money. Loves it, actually.

For this game, though, the advantage isn’t just that Dallas played on Thursday. Instead, the real advantage comes in the fact that the Colts just played on Monday Night Football. While they were at home for that contest, they didn’t get done playing until after 11 PM, meaning they had no recovery time on Monday at all.

They then get just five full days before playing Dallas, and they have to do so on the road. Not only do the Cowboys have a better roster and better coaching staff, but they also have twice as much time to prepare for this game. That gives us yet another reason to believe they’ll pull off this win.

2. The coaches are finally riding the hot hand

For the past four seasons, the Cowboys have made sure everyone knew Ezekiel Elliott was the top running back in their offense. They even seemed to get defensive when people suggested Tony Pollard should get the ball more often — even though they knew deep down inside this should happen.

Despite that knowledge, they went about it in the wrong way. This offseason, they experimented with Pollard at receiver as a way to get him on the field with Elliott. But then, Zeke got injured, paving the way for Pollard to put up 246 yards and four touchdowns in two games.

That’s changed the strategy a bit, as Pollard and Elliott each had 15 carries in their win over Minnesota, although No. 20 had another 109 yards and two touchdowns as a receiver. Then Pollard had 18 against 16 for Elliott in the Week 12 win over New York.

However, Pollard didn’t surpass Zeke in that one until the game was decided and they were running out the clock. While this might have been the case in the past, it was done for the right reasons against the G-Men.

Elliott was the more effective back, gaining 92 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries. As for Pollard, he had 60 yards on 18 rushes — but the good news is that they were riding the hot hand. That’s happened two weeks in a row now, as the coaches are figuring out that having two good running backs in the coffer isn’t a problem after all.

There’s no reason it needs to be a competition between the two. They each have different styles, and while the Giants were focused on stopping Pollard and his explosive style, Elliott made them pay with his methodical and punishing style. That’s a recipe for success, and we should see it continue this weekend against Indy.

1. Dak Prescott has knocked off the rust

The two picks in the first half against the Green Bay Packers were frustrating, but they weren’t solely on Dak Prescott. The same can be said about his two picks in the first half against the New York Giants.

What can also be said is that Prescott bounced back nicely in each of those games. Dallas didn’t win against the Packers, but they had a late lead, as No. 4 threw for 265 yards and three touchdowns. Then, against New York, he had 261 yards with two touchdowns, leading his team to win No. 8 on the season.

In between those two outings, Prescott had his best game of the season, completing 22-of-25 passes for 276 yards with two touchdowns in a 40-3 win over Minnesota. Throw all that together, and he’s playing at a very high level, with nine touchdowns in the past four games.

What’s more impressive than that is the way he’s masked some of the stink that could have doomed this team. For example, there was a 14-play drive that spanned 75 yards and took 7:39 to start the third quarter against the Giants. Trailing 13-7, Dallas nearly had to settle for just three points after their best drive of the game when they had a third-and-12 following two losses of one yard on the ground.

Prescott converted the play with a beautiful pass to CeeDee Lamb to set them up with a first-and-goal, but thanks to two penalties and another run that was stuffed, the Cowboys had a third-and-goal from the 15. Prescott wasn’t bothered, as he calmly hit Dalton Schultz for the go-ahead touchdown.

He and Schultz connected again later on a six-yard touchdown, which put the game out of reach. Those are the plays the top quarterbacks make, and after showing some rust following thumb surgery, that’s what Prescott looks like once again.

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