Was the Cowboys offense more ominous than defense was dominant vs WFT?

The Dallas Cowboys went into Washington and won 27-20, nearly matching my prediction of 27-17. Winning, and nothing more, needs to be talked about before we dive in. Guys, we are 9-4. Every year the number in the W-L column is what it always comes down to. Yes, there are some things that concern me, and I will dive into those. But let’s ground ourselves for just one minute.

We have gotten to enjoy nine different wins that have come in a multitude of ways. I don’t have to have my phone blown up by friends and family every time the Cowboys lose or blow a lead (believe me, my phone lit up like a Christmas tree in the fourth quarter on Sunday). The Cowboys have a three-game lead on the NFC East with only four to play. None of us can be too mad at that. We all would have taken that if told preseason.

Okay, time for the meat and potatoes. We have to look at each week: win or loss. I think there is some reassurance to be had. I did a bit more of an analytical deep dive than normal and have an interesting stat you may want to check out. I think you may find that the Cowboys’ offensive struggles aren’t quite as bad as we thought. Don’t push the panic button quite yet. This one might garner some thoughts and I can’t wait to chat it up with you guys in the comments.

The Dallas Cowboys’ Defense Dominates

The Cowboys’ defense dominated yesterday, and that might be underselling it. My goodness. All this group did was play lights out to the tune of allowing 224 total yards and 3.6 yards per play. That is lights-out defense. Toss in four turnovers and a barrage of five sacks that could have been many more, Washington’s offense couldn’t wait to get that beatdown over with.

I tweeted it yesterday, and still stand by it… Micah Parsons can stop thinking about Defensive Rookie of the Year (that’s wrapped up with a bow on top) and start looking at the NFL Defensive Player of the Year. Parsons is generating pressure on 22% of his rushes. For context, that would be the best in the last 10-15 years by a substantial amount. It would top the best seasons by the likes of Nick and Joey Bosa, Myles Garrett, T.J. and J.J. Watt, Von Miller, Khalil Mack, etc. You get the point. His performance right now is special.

Don’t let me forget Randy Gregory making one of the most athletic plays I have ever seen from a defensive end, when he tipped a pass, tracked it in air, and picked it off. He tossed in a sack for good measure, too. Gregory’s defensive line buddies also had a day with Demarcus Lawrence and Neville Gallimore finding the quarterback and Dorance Armstrong finding the end zone on a fumble recovery.

The group of ballhawks in the secondary did their thing. They held Washington’s number one receiver, Terry McLaurin, to a goose egg. No catches. No yards. Absolutely beautiful. Trevon Diggs, Jourdan Lewis, Jayron Kearse, and Anthony Brown all got their hands on the ball with a pass deflection. Oh, did I mention Leighton Vander Esch was the highest-graded player on defense yesterday? Again – LIGHTS. OUT. PERFORMANCE.

The Dallas Cowboys’ Offense Operates Ominously

That part was fun. Now, for the Cowboys’ offense. That wasn’t as fun. And, I must admit, I am a little concerned. I haven’t opened up the glass case on the panic button. But I’ll admit, I took a glance at it out of my peripherals.

I can excuse the run game yesterday. Tony Pollard was out and Ezekiel Elliott is clearly still nursing his knee injury. The offense was hamstrung in that area. But that doesn’t really provide answers for what we saw in the passing game. Something is…off… in the passing game. All of the receiver weapons are finally healthy and playing together. The offensive line held up fine yesterday. Yet there is just something missing. Do I think something is up with Dak Prescott? Yes and no.

Yes, for a few reasons. In the last four games, he is completing 63.5% of his passes, while his career average is 66%.  Slight decrease, but don’t know if that’s the culprit. I think the issue lies in the yards per attempt. His career average is 7.4 yards per attempt. In these last four games, it is 6.1 yards per attempt. Nearly a yard and a half is significant.

Why is that so telling? To drop that much, there have to be considerably shorter throws. The Cowboys’ offense isn’t pushing the ball down the field these last few games. One can speculate why that is. Is the preseason shoulder flaring up and limiting Dak’s arm strength? Is his calf causing issues with pushing off to get power on the ball? None of us can know, but it is worth asking.

I don’t think it is either of those two, but it’s in the realm of possibility. My educated guess is that defenses have adjusted a bit to Kellen Moore’s offense and an injury-riddled offense doesn’t help him either. The Cowboys would be wise to break their offensive tendencies, but I do believe the numbers will start returning to the previous averages we have seen throughout Prescott’s career with his stable of receivers healthy.

Are Cowboys fans’ concerns about Dak Prescott a product of recency bias? Look at the entirety of the quarterback’s career.

Here is why I think there may not be much to it at all. There is reason to find reassurance to not be worried. It has seemed bad and the offense has sputtered. But, we are talking about four games. FOUR GAMES. That is just 4.9% of Prescott’s entire career. I do think Cowboys fans are falling victim to our good friend, recency bias. I would be lying if I said I wasn’t as well.

Players have stretches like this. It is part of every career. Is Dak playing up to the standard we have seen? The standard that he set for himself? The level that can win the Super Bowl? No. And, Prescott is the first to agree. But let’s remember it is a four-game stretch. As evidenced by his comments after the game yesterday, one can deduct that Prescott knows he didn’t play well enough.

Take away this stretch, and Dak was putting up a 71% completion percentage, 8.4 yards per attempt, and a 20-5 touchdown-to-interception margin. Prescott was playing at an MVP level for the first eight games of the year. Or, 67% of his starts. As I said, I have questions. I would be lying if I didn’t have some worries creeping into my mind. But, I am still going to hold out that this is a blip and choose to look at the entire data set of his career versus a sample size of just 4.9% of his career.

The Cowboys have shown they can be the top defense in the league, and they will look to recapture their top offensive output down the stretch. They have time before the playoffs to find their mojo.

Do you know why they have that time? Because at the end of the day, they are still 9-4. They are still going to the playoffs. They still have the talent to beat anyone in this league. The worries are warranted and even fair, but don’t be blind to the grand scheme of things.

5 key defensive plays that helped Cowboys beat WFT

There is no denying that the Cowboys' Week 14 win was thanks to the defense. Let's look at their five biggest plays that helped secure the W.