Cowboys vs Washington Week 14: History, players to watch, gut projection

The Dallas Cowboys have a big one this Sunday. I cannot state that enough. The Cowboys righted the ship against the New Orleans Saints last week to get to an 8-4 record and retain their control of the NFC East for the time being.

Dallas hits the road to take on NFC East foe, the Washington Football Team, in their first meeting this season.

Although this is just the first of two times they will meet, this game could be the turning point in the NFC East. With 5 games to go, this matchup could nearly decide the division.

A Cowboys win gives them a three-game lead with only four games left to play. A loss brings Washington right back into the thick of things being only one game back with four to play. More or less, this game is massive for the Cowboys if they want to win the NFC East.

Washington is coming in hot. No doubt about it. After starting the season 2-6 and looking dead in the water, WFT has reeled off four straight victories to at least give them a pulse for the NFC East and the Wild Card conversation.

Time to get into a little history of this long-time rivalry, a look into the weather (BUCKLE UP, BABY, AN OUTDOOR GAME), some guys that have a great chance to step up, and a prediction for how this one shakes out.

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Football Team: Matchup History

All-Time Record: 73-47-2 in favor of the Cowboys (2-0 postseason record in favor of WFT)

Most Recent Result: WFT 41, Dallas Cowboys 16 on November 26, 2020

The Cowboys have dominated this series. Back in the day, recently, and overall. Well, minus last season. But, we all know the pain 2020 was all around. The Cowboys are 11-7 over the last decade against Washington.

Last season saw the WFT sweep the Dallas Cowboys for the first time since 2012. That is largely attributed to a decimated Cowboys team with backup quarterbacks and struggles all around.

One of my personal favorite games in this rivalry was back in December of 2013. The Cowboys were down 23-17 late in the fourth quarter of a Sunday Night game that included an extremely limited Tony Romo as he showed guts playing through a severe back injury. Romo led the Cowboys down the field late.

With just over one minute left, it came down to a fourth down to decide the game. Romo did one of his famous acts of keeping the play alive and found running back Demarco Murray for a completion that got into the end zone, allowing the Cowboys to take a late 24-23 lead, and ultimately win the game.

This year will be a bit different. On paper, the Cowboys have a clear advantage offensively, especially at the quarterback position with Dak Prescott matching up against a former XFL quarterback, Taylor Heinicke. Make no mistake, though. Heinicke is gutsy and shows some moxie. But, his true quarterback play leaves something to be desired.

Defensively, the WFT will be without key pass rusher Montez Sweat after a positive COVID-19 test. Their defensive unit has been a bit of a rollercoaster. They initially were looked at as one of the best in the league before the season. As the year progressed, they looked like the disappointment of the league. However, they have stabled out a bit since.

The Cowboys have advantages across the board on paper. But as they say, you still gotta play the game.

Cowboys vs Washington: Weather Outlook

Location: FedExField, Landover, MD

Stadium Type: Outdoor, grass

Predicted Forecast: High of 50, low of 30, winds gradually subsiding and cooler with sunshine and patchy clouds. Winds of 16-17mph with gusts up to 36-37mph

Is… is… is that the excitement of an outdoor game that we all feel?! Outdoor football with subpar weather on a surface that could be a bit questionable?! Against a team that is frisky where this could help them more than it hurts?!

Yeah, I am not thrilled about this situation. Landover is going to get rain on Saturday opening up the very real possibility this grass surface could be a little slick. You have to imagine Washington will keep the tarp on until warmups start, but that only does so much.

With an early kickoff, even with the wind and some sunlight, FedExField isn’t going to have much time to rid of any excess water.

I do have some questions about the Cowboys run game as we have seen it stall out as of lately. The good news is Ezekiel Elliott had a 10-day break to get his knee healthy. One thing to keep an eye on is the foot of Tony Pollard. While many feel he should be fine, it is worth noting.

That said, I think this is great for the Cowboys’ defense. If they can load the box against the run game and force Heinicke to throw the ball, I take that all day.

The forecasted wind is enough to undoubtedly play a factor in the passing game as well. Long throws could be tough, the ball could sail with the wind and hang going into it. I like the chances of an opportunistic Cowboys defense coming off of a four-interception performance.

Heinicke is what I would call a “Dollar Store Brett Favre” with some of his careless, gun-slinger throws when the play breaks down. If Dallas can force him to throw and pressure him, I think he gives a chance or two on some questionable throws.

Cowboys vs Washington: “Under the Radar” Players

Dallas Cowboys: Dalton Schultz, TE

Washington Football Team: Curtis Samuel, WR

Boy, oh boy, was the Jayron Kearse breakout performance pick spot on last week! Did he ever show up?! Kearse showed out with nine total tackles, two for loss, and an unbelievable toe-drag interception. I can only hope this week prevails just as well.

This is only the second game in a while that the Cowboys will get a truly healthy trio of Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup. So why did I pick Dalton Schultz? I picked him because it doesn’t make sense, it shouldn’t make sense, but that’s just how these things go. Well, it sort of makes sense. Let me explain.

With the running back situation just a little dicey, my gut tells me that the WFT is going to be sitting in some nickel and dime packages to not get hurt by the three-headed monster at wide receiver. Dak Prescott and Kellen Moore either know this, or should recognize it early, and take 7-10-yard easy completions over the middle to Schultz all day long.

No need to force it to the outside weapons when the easy throw to Schultz can move the ball down the field. Factor in the wind potentially being an issue, underneath throws may be most effective. I think Schultz finds the end zone once and gives us roughly 8 catches for 75 yards with a good chunk of those moving the sticks.

Washington is not loaded like the Cowboys are offensively, but they can hurt you. Although a division rival, I am a huge fan of Terry McLaurin. That dude is gritty, makes the contested catch, and for being a bit smaller, welcomes every hit. He can play.

The Cowboys match up well with him by letting Trevon Diggs do his thing in man coverage. With that matchup outside, I wouldn’t be afraid to routinely put seven defenders in the box and dare Heinicke to throw it.

With tight end Logan Thomas going on the injured reserve, the secondary threats will need to come from elsewhere. I think Curtis Samuel is a name to look out for on Sunday. He has been quiet this year with some injuries. But think of him as a knock-off Deebo Samuel. In his previous two years, which were with the Panthers, he had no fewer than 54 receptions and 19 carries. He can hurt a team in multiple ways.

Coming off of an injury and getting back into the swing of things, I think the WFT works Samuel back into the offense in a multitude of ways. The Cowboys would be wise to be prepared for Samuel in motions, on reverses, and even lining up in the backfield. Samuel has big-play explosiveness, but limit this, and the Cowboys defense could feast.

Cowboys vs Washington: Gut projection

Prediction: Cowboys 27, Washington Football Team 17

I expect a bit of an old-school, gritty NFC East feel to this game. Both teams know there is a lot on the line in the division and playoff race. The Cowboys don’t want this division race to get close and hear media talk of a collapse. Washington needs this game to continue their chase down of the Cowboys and keep afloat for the Wild Card.

Washington has allowed the third-fewest rushing yards while giving up the fourth-most passing yards. Quite the difference in defensive output. They have also given up the most passing touchdowns in the league. These statistics bode well for the Cowboys.

Attack Washington with Cooper, Lamb, and Gallup being fully healthy and keep them honest with the backs. With Zeke just barely coming off of a knee injury that really hobbled him and the questions with Pollard’s foot, I would go against the grain here and use the passing game to set up the running game.

Throw it on first downs with easy targets to Schultz, catch the defense with well-timed draws, and get some jet sweeps going. The run game doesn’t have to be between the tackles in the NFL anymore. Use the edges, have some wide receivers toting the rock, and get creative on the ground after you loosen them up with the pass. Even use flat passes with blocking and quick hitters as an extension of the run game. Don’t get caught up that the “run game” HAS TO be an inside handoff.

Earlier, I talked about loading the box against the WFT offense, and here is why. The Cowboys will be playing with a healthy Demarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory that get to pair with Micah Parsons, who somehow continues to step up each week and find new ways to amaze us. The Cowboys need to win first down on defense by shutting down the run game. Go heavy against it, and force Washington into passing situations. Any time it is an obvious passing down, the Cowboys should bring out their dime or nickel package of five or six defensive backs. Drop into coverage, and let Lawrence, Gregory, and Parsons rush the passer. Good luck, you can’t double them all…

The Dallas Cowboys know what this game means. A win gives them a three-game lead with just four to play. They could put a stranglehold on the division very early and give themselves some much-needed breathing room over the final month of the season.

This game will get a little chippy and feisty, but that’s what I want to see from the Cowboys when they can go for a kill shot in the division. The Cowboys pull out one that is a bit of a grind and fly back to Texas with separation in the NFC East and a strengthening pulse on their march to the playoffs.

3 WFT players the Dallas Cowboys should be afraid of

The Dallas Cowboys will face a red-hot WFT in Week 14. What players from this NFC East rival should the Cowboys be concerned about?