The Dallas Cowboys travel to New Orleans to take on the Saints in Week 13 in yet another game both teams desperately need in terms of playoff implications. The Cowboys are on a two-game skid and need a win to stay in any sort of contention for the #1 seed and a first-round bye in the NFC. The Saints need a win to stay afloat in the Wild Card race.
Dallas hit a bit of a November speed bump going 1-3 in their last four games. Luckily, the NFC East continues to be a clown show and couldn’t make up any ground. That said, this team has their eyes set on more and needs a win to make any sort of run at the top of the NFC. Another loss all but eliminates a chance at the bye.
The Saints are hovering around the .500 mark and in a logjam with a handful of teams for the seventh and final Wild Card spot. They are searching for a win to get to 6-6 and set themselves up for a stretch run to get into the playoffs.
As usual, I’ve got a little matchup history, what to expect in New Orleans, some guys that could influence this game when all is said and done, and my best attempt at a prediction. Check it out!
Dallas Cowboys vs New Orleans Saints: Matchup History
All-Time Record: 17-13 in favor of the Cowboys
Most Recent Result: New Orleans Saints 12, Dallas Cowboys 10 on September 29, 2019
After the Cowboys won 11 of the first 12 games in this matchup, the Saints have rattled off a more recent record of 12-6 since 1988. Since 2013 this series has seen victories alternate hands between two teams making playoff runs and usually in contention.
We have to talk about the tie between Sean Payton and the Cowboys. In 2003 he joined the staff and remained on the offensive side of the ball until the Saints poached him for the head coaching job prior to the 2006 season. There have been rumors of Payton returning to Dallas ever since.
In 2019 when the Cowboys were looking to move on from Jason Garrett, they reached out to Payton to gauge his interest in returning to be the head coach of the Cowboys. Payton ultimately signed an extension with the Saints putting that rumor to bed.
A personal favorite game of mine dates back to 2009, the year the Saints won the Super Bowl. The Saints were sitting at 13-0 and welcomed Dallas to town. The Cowboys found success beating the Saints offensively, forcing turnovers, and holding on for an upset. This game was the only time that the Cowboys were able to take down Drew Brees while he was at the helm of the Saints’ offense.
This year sees a game of musical chairs at the Saints quarterback position. They started the year with Jameis Winston who unfortunately tore his ACL ending his season. They had moved to journeyman Trevor Siemian to lead the offense with a sprinkling of utility-man Taysom Hill taking some snaps as well, although it appears Hill may be the starter come Thursday.
Sources: The #Saints appear poised to make a QB change. Taysom Hill is taking first-team reps this week in practice in preparation to face the #Cowboys. Trevor Siemian is taking No. 2 reps.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) November 29, 2021
The Saints have been banged up but are staying just enough above water to hang in there. They did have their all-around star running back Alvin Kamara rejoin the team on Sunday for a walkthrough after being inactive. His progress will be a large factor in this game.
The Cowboys appear to have advantages on paper but the Saints are never an easy out at home with it always loud there in primetime. Sean Payton will have the Saints ready to go and could turn this thing into another dogfight if the Cowboys are sluggish.
Cowboys vs Saints: Weather Outlook
Location: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Stadium Type: Dome, turf
Predicted Forecast: High of 74, low of 57, partly sunny and nice, winds of 6-7mph with gusts 8-9mph
Not that the weather is going to have any factor on this game as it is in a dome, but man, that is a gorgeous day down in New Orleans. That makes me want to hit up Bourbon Street for a little pregame tailgate and enjoy myself.
Well, maybe not. I spent four days on Bourbon Street during Mardi Gras as a 21-year-old with five of my college teammates. I think I still might be recovering from that trip. But, if you get the chance to experience Mardi Gras, absolutely do it. Worth every single second.
I personally will only refer to it as “The Superdome” forever. Sort of like the Sears Tower in Chicago. I refuse to call it the Willis Tower. Once a name is made up in my mind, it is that for the eternity of time and nothing will make me recognize the new name.
Nonetheless, this place will be rocking on Thursday night in primetime. The Saints always have the energy turned up in here and that should only increase being a primetime game against the Cowboys. The offense will need to weather the storm early and look to convert a few first downs to silence the crowd.
An early three-&-out or turnover could have the Cowboys in for a long evening. The Cowboys would also be smart to utilize some pre-snap motions a bit more to hush the crowd and work in some change of pace snaps. Sneak in a few plays of breaking the huddle and snapping on the first word said to catch the defense napping. Any little thing can help against a loud crowd.
Dak Prescott bounced back last week and has command of the offense once again. I suspect him to handle the noise just fine and stabilize the entire unit when things get loud.
Cowboys vs Saints: “Under the Radar” Players
Dallas Cowboys: Jayron Kearse, SS
New Orleans Saints: Nick Vannett, TE
We bounced back with our Tony Pollard prediction last week. Offensively he had 68 yards on limited touches in which he averaged five yards per touch. He also tossed in an electrifying 100-yard kick return to get the Cowboys right back into the game. Let’s cross our fingers we stay hot this week.
This week I look to safety Jayron Kearse as a guy who could not only step up big this week but continue what he has done all year. Kearse has been a great addition to the Cowboys. Through 11 games, not only is he the Cowboys leading tackler, he has already set career highs in games started, total tackles, solo tackles, pass deflections, and tied his best mark for interceptions.
With Alvin Kamara potentially playing on Thursday, Kearse could be tasked with some duties of guarding arguably the best pass-catching back in the league. Not only do I suspect we see Kearse on Kamara, but his hybrid ability to play in the box along with roaming as a safety opens up a lot of things for this defense.
Kearse should see plenty of action as I think the Cowboys have the advantage in Trevon Diggs and Anthony Brown over the Saints receivers of Marquez Callaway and Deonte Harris. The Saints will likely look to RB/WR hybrid Ty Montgomery and the tight end Nick Vannett making Kearse very active.
I don’t necessarily need an interception or fumble, but I think we see Kearse step up with some open-field tackles that save chunk plays in the flat or force a fourth down with a textbook form tackle.
For the Saints, they will need to find a spark offensively as they rank fourth-lowest in the league in yards per game with just 209 yards offensively and third-lowest in completion percentage at just 58%.
Their tight end, Nick Vannett, is a bit of a lesser-known name around the league but he could quietly find himself as a Saints top target. Throughout November, their other tight end, Adam Trautman, was the Saints leading receiver in yards and receptions. He is on the IR now.
Trautman has hauled in at least 4 catches in the last three games he played. This sort of trend feels like one that will be even more pronounced with Taysom Hill at quarterback. It also shows me that Sean Payton is not opening the playbook up entirely as his top two wideouts have just 11 catches combined in the last three games.
If the Cowboys can contain Kamara, and I would sell out to do so if he plays, they are going to put a lot of pressure on the passing game. In an area I think there is a mismatch on the outside, the Cowboys will need to make sure the Saints’ tight end doesn’t hurt them.
Cowboys vs Saints: Gut prediction
Prediction: Cowboys 31, Saints 14
I simply do not see the Saints having offensive success against the Cowboys come Thursday night. They are rather anemic and struggle to push the ball downfield with a backup quarterback and running back room pretty banged up.
Dak Prescott answered the critics last week and even some of my questions by putting up 375 yards and two touchdowns without Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb. On no planet is last week’s game on his shoulders. He is commanding the Cowboys offense and I suspect that to continue.
Although Amari Cooper remains questionable as he tries to fully recover from COVID-19, CeeDee Lamb is going to return to the lineup in a much-needed boost to the passing attack. This should be a boost against a defense in the bottom-third in passing yards allowed. The Cowboys would be wise to attack the Saints through the air.
The Saints do have a rather stout run defense as they have given up a league-leading measly 3.4 yards per carry. With Ezekiel Elliott nursing a knee, the Cowboys may try to avoid slamming into a brick wall with the run game. I put this game on Dak Prescott’s shoulders and let him go to work.
Having at least one of his top receivers healthy is a very welcome gift and I suspect Prescott puts on a show. Dare I say 400+ yards and three touchdowns… on the road, in primetime, in a huge game? I have an inkling we get a monster performance to right the ship and reset things for the Cowboys.
On defense, the Cowboys don’t need to get too exotic here. I like the matchup of playing straight-up ball against the Saints. With a Taysom Hill coming off of an injury and a questionable passing attack, the Cowboys would be well-suited to play sound defense and avoid any huge mistakes. Make the Saints win the game versus blown coverages keeping them in it.
Keep Micah Parsons rushing the passer with his speed to chase down Hill when he leaves the pocket and the Cowboys should see enough success in that area to get a few errant throws. This is a game the defense could be playing with a lead and look to get really aggressive. I like the ‘Boys getting their hands on one pick.
The Dallas Cowboys need to flush the month of November down the drain and recapture their early-season success. The division is still completely in their control and they can still make a run for the bye. That stretch run starts here in a game the Cowboys dominate and pick up a nice confidence-boosting win on the road.