Last year, I attempted to predict who the Dallas Cowboys were going to select based on multiple factors which ranged from logic to availability. From passing on players due to depth to allowing need to creep into the conversation, the picks I selected were done so carefully.
Needless to say, it was a complete failure as the Dallas Cowboys selected Oklahoma wide receiver, Ceedee Lamb, with the 17th overall selection. I had the Cowboys selecting Florida cornerback C.J. Henderson who I believed would be there with the 17th pick.
This year the names are much more condensed so as easy as some might think this is, there are so many factors involved in who actually might be there, and what spots can you wait to draft in later rounds.
I am sure you can probably guess the usual suspects but I arranged them in order of probability of them being there to be selected rather than want.
It was difficult to predict because of the uncertainty with which quarterback prospects at the top are going to be taken. Those decisions are likely to have a different chain reaction depending on who the San Francisco 49ers take with the third selection.
If San Fran takes Trey Lance third overall like I would think they will, it would have a negative effect draft-wise for the Cowboys. I cannot see a scenario where anyone past the 19th spot that makes the significant jump-up to take Mac Jones or Justin Fields. If the team from the bay area takes Mac Jones as some people think, things could get interesting.
Time will only tell and all of this silly speculation can go away while fans get to welcome their newest addition.
5 – Micah Parsons
Linebacker Micah Parsons is a dark horse candidate to be selected at ten even though I believe it would be a mistake. Selecting an off-the-ball linebacker is not a good way to use the precious resource Dallas currently possesses.
Parsons is a fantastic prospect with so much upside but team building 101 should have a section dedicated to a list of positions you can and can’t take at certain spots minus the generational guys. Linebacker, running back, and any other constant high-speed collision positions where players wear down faster should be drafted in later rounds.
The 2016 NFL draft class was regarded as a huge success but the top two players selected, running back Ezekiel Elliott and linebacker Jaylon Smith, are still young but are the subject of declining performances.
This is the main reason I am opposed to taking Parsons so high in the draft. His tape shows a defender who is everywhere and has the speed to become a pursuit monster but the tenth pick should be reserved for positions that have a better chance at staying in this league longer.
There are players that have had long careers playing both of those positions but the attrition rate feels like it is less likely those two guys will be with the team longer than let’s say an offensive lineman or cornerback.
Parsons would be a great candidate to select later in the first round if the Cowboys can trade back and land a premium pick but it feels a bit too risky at ten for a position that isn’t likely to last as long as others.
Parsons in Dallas would probably affect one and possibly both starting linebackers as Jaylon Smith being cut probably depends on his performance this year while Leighton Vander Esch has a tricky fifth-year option tied to him.
4 – Penei Sewell
Sewell is my second-rated prospect at the top of my big board and if drafted in Dallas would have a spot on the offensive line ready for him to take. I like Connor Williams but Sewell is a different type of player. Williams had to get stronger in each and every offseason in order to hold up against NFL players but Sewell might already be a better and stronger player.
Sewell would carry the torch as the next great Dallas offensive lineman and I would be ecstatic if he was the team’s selection at ten.
There is a long list of offensive tackles in this year’s draft so teams could pass up on the elite guys in order for them to take a different position possibly pushing Sewell to Dallas. I have been on the record saying Sewell would be a great left guard and he could develop into the team’s starting blindside blocker.
I just wonder if the team would rather trade back for extra draft capital or follow the lead and select another position as tackle seems to be the deepest position in this year’s draft.
I really think that Sewell could be there at ten but I suspect the team would rather draft a cornerback over a guard.
I would be overjoyed if the team were to select Sewell and would be welcomed with open arms but after such a disaster of a year, I would imagine the intent of the Dallas Cowboys front office and their brand would rather give fans a rush of excitement with a much more sexy pick.
Sure, that is probably the worst way to run a franchise but it sure does make headlines.
3 – Jaycee Horn
South Carolina’s defensive back is a large, fast, and feisty cornerback that has traits not seen in Dallas in quite some time. His play reminds some people of Jalen Ramsey which is no surprise as he has trained with him in the offseason before.
There was even a recent interview in which Florida superstar tight end Kyle Pitts directly names Horn as the most difficult matchup he has personally faced.
Horn is likely the fallback option at ten but I have a sneaky suspicion that all top five quarterbacks will go in the first round further pushing other skill players to Dallas.
The funny thing about Horn is I think he could be the emotional lightning rod for the Dallas Cowboys kinda like what Michael Irvin was and is still doing to hype up the fanbase. His practice film at South Carolina looks like he is performing for scouts at the Senior Bowl.
Horn would be a breath of fresh air as his arrogance and mouth could be what gives this defense an identity that no longer rides shotgun to the stars on the other side of the ball. If you like smack talk, Horn is sure likely to not only defend you well but also get in your face and tell you about it.
The Dallas defense has a lot of nice pieces to work with and have a bunch of great guys but what the defense lacks is that sprinkle of crazy. Charles Haley was crazy and it worked well with the great teammates he had in Dallas so sprinkling in a little bit of that would probably work out once again.
I sometimes think that some teams draft players not only based on football but also evaluate how he fits in your city? Horn doesn’t fit the traditional buttoned-up prospects most of the Dallas Cowboys players turn out to be and that is exactly why I want him.
There are certainly abrasive people who make everyday routines tough but I would rather put up with that and have him on my team than playing against him. I’m just not sure a divided front office can pull the trigger.
2 – Kyle Pitts
Florida tight end Kyler Pitts going to Dallas is a hot topic off the field and I cannot understand why. The draft is about acquiring the best talent but NFL talent evaluators use it as their primary source to fill the gaps in their club as best as they can.
That is fine as long as you are not drafting strictly for need while leaving top-end talent on the board. The Dallas Cowboys have needed defense for years yet Kyle Pitts is where everyone is putting their foot down and saying enough is enough.
I agree with drafting defense as long as projected superstars aren’t available. The team drafted defensive end, Greg Ellis because they needed pass rush yet let Hall of Fame wideout Randy Moss slip through their grasp.
It is also fascinating that the Atlanta Falcons, Cincinnati Bengals, and the Detroit Lions fielded a worse defense than the Dallas Cowboys yet big media has zero issues with those franchises drafting Pitts yet it is mostly negative national news when the Dallas Cowboys mention his name.
The Denver Broncos, Miami Dolphins, and Carolina Panthers were all just a hair better than the Dallas defense are also Pitts landing spots that are also in the top ten and ahead of Dallas. Carolina’s defense ranked 18th while Dallas finished in the 23rd spot.
Most people that make mistakes often replay that moment in their minds and vow to never make the same mistake again. I am sorry to report but if Pitts is available, he is more than likely going to be the selection.
How many people would have crucified this team if they took LSU pass rusher, K’Lavon Chaisson, instead of wide receiver Cedee Lamb last year? Chaisson had one sack last season for Jacksonville while Lamb looks like he will be a Pro Bowl wideout for a long time.
So why don’t I have him as the top overall selection? The answer to that question solely rests on availability as I don’t think that Pitts makes it to the tenth spot. If the team decides to trade up then that is their prerogative but if he is available at ten, I take him over every other prospect in this draft.
Without looking, who is the second-best tight end in this draft? Pitts is so unique that comparison’s in this draft haven’t even been brought up because he is so far ahead of all of the other prospects.
While you google that name, just know that the teams draft analysts’ more than likely have scouted Pitts just as much as the top defenders because some talent cannot be replicated. Pitts would put Dallas over the moon but I think there is a player that has a better chance of being at ten.
1 – Patrick Surtain II
With so many elite offensive players available I still think that the stars are going to align and the Dallas Cowboys are going to select the best defensive player in this draft who also happens to play the biggest position of need for the Dallas Cowboys.
Alabama cornerback Partick Surtain II has all the tools you would want in a cornerback minus the splash plays that are elevating other prospects with bigger flaws.
Some experts will also say that the lack of splash plays has to do with quarterbacks unwilling to test the pro-ready prospect. Surtain the II is the son of former Pro Bowl cornerback Patrick Surtain and I project that to be his floor.
I could also see him wear number 23 in Dallas (sorry Darian Thompson) just like his father wore in the league but I would imagine number 24 is penciled in at the moment.
Pairing Surtain with current Dallas Cowboys and former Alabama teammate Trevon Diggs has a certain symmetry that more than a few fans find appealing. I really would love to see Kyle Pitts in a Dallas uniform ( Pitts grew up in Philadelphia and most of his family are Eagles fans) but he will probably gone.
I wouldn’t place Surtain in the consolation prize category as he is a great prospect in his own right. Surtain has similar measurables to Horn so it is not like Surtain is falling for any particular reason. When prospects are out there for so long and there aren’t many flaws to find, fanbases start to nitpick their guys.
Surtain will no doubt have some growing pains in Dallas but that would almost be certain for all of the other rookies on this list. A veteran cornerback added right before or after the draft could go a long way in helping a rookie manage such a demanding position. So without further hesitation.
With the 10th pick in the first round, the Dallas Cowboys select, Patrick Surtain II, cornerback from the University of Alabama.