The NFL is the ultimate meritocracy.  You draft well, you sign good players in free agency, and you will compete for a playoff spot.  If you draft poorly (Detroit), and throw good money after bad players (Washington), you will wallow in mediocrity.

AFC EAST:

Previous division winner: New England Patriots

2010 division winner: New England Patriots: The Bills are too far away.  The Jets have a good defense and questions on offense.  They are overrated and over-hyped.  Miami will play tough football, but they are missing key pieces on both sides of the ball.  They may run a similar scheme as the Cowboys, but they lack a Romo, a Witten, and a Ware.

The Patriots are back to being boring.  The offense has been so dynamic the last few years, that it is no longer a story for the mainstream media.  The defense is near to completing their youth movement (partly due to all the veterans getting traded, cut, or injured), and there are few better game day coaches than Bill Belicheck.

AFC North

Previous Division Winner: Cincinnati Bengals

2010 division winner: Ravens:  The Browns defense was adequate last year.  Delhomme may be a better option than Quinn and Anderson, but not by much.  Whether Mangini can be a good head coach still remains to be seen.  The Steelers will have Polomalu roaming deep centerfield and they will make the playoffs, but starting 2-2 with one of the losses being to the Ravens will put them in a severe disadvantage.  As for the Bengals, I don’t see the offense imploding because of Terrell Owens.  I simply doubt the Bengals are good enough to repeat as division champions in one of the better divisions in football.

As for the Ravens, they are young at key positions on offense, QB, RB, and WR; they also have a surplus of talent at the offensive line.  Their defense has been perpetually old for the past 5 years.  Every year it is expected that Ray Lewis and Co. will hit the wall and the team will implode.  Every year I’m wrong so why should I finally be right in 2010?

AFC South

Previous Division Winner: Indianapolis Colts

2010 division winner: Texans:  This is based on one caveat.  If the Texans win against the Colts in week one, I expect the Texans to win the division.  If the Colts win, I predict the Titans to win the division.  The Colts will be formidable and will make the playoffs; however, there are two components to losing a Super Bowl.  The first is the disappointment that the players feel about losing and the amount of time it takes for them to get past that; the second is the fact that the players have to play 3 more physical games.  The first is emotional trauma that no other team has to suffer; the second is a physical trauma that most other players in the league are not subject to.

As for the Titans, they are a capable team.  Chris Johnson has his sights set on 2,500 yards.  I’m not sure he exceeds 1,300.  Historically, running backs who broke 2,000 yards do not come close to repeating their performance.  Consequently, if Johnson isn’t as dynamic, there is little chance that Vince Young will pick up the slack.  I believe the Titans will finish near 8-8, but they will miss the playoffs.  The Jaguars don’t merit discussion.  Jack Del Rio will be looking for work next year; he is a victim of mediocre QB play.  Leftwich and Garrard did not pan out and Del Rio will join a long list of defensive minded coaches whose teams underperformed because of sub-par offenses.

AFC West

Previous Division Winner: San Diego Chargers

Raiders:  There is no reason for the Chargers not to repeat as division winners.  While the Chargers may have still have two prominent holdouts, they are a deep team and can replace the players without missing a beat.  The Broncos fell apart late last season due to injuries, the Chiefs are still rebuilding around a quarterback who did a good Tom Brady impersonation for one season. Thomas Jones still has gas in the tank and the Chiefs won’t be the pushover they were the year before.  The fact of the matter is the only safe bet in the AFC West are the Chargers, which is why I’m picking the Raiders.  The Raiders are the most talented bad team in the NFL and there is always a team that comes from the bottom of the barrel to surprise the league.  On the other hand, it wouldn’t be surprising if Al Davis fires Tom Cable in the 2nd week of the season and cuts Jason Campbell in week four.  Barring the complete unexpected, pencil in the Raiders as your surprise team for 2010.

Tomorrow I’ll cover the NFC.  After week 8 when both the Raiders and Texans are 2-5, I’m sure I’ll look foolish.

Haynesworth signed a seven year 100 million dollar deal in February 2009 with the Redskins. Built into the deal was a guaranteed $41 million dollars. At the time, Haynesworth said the following:

”You’re not going to remember Albert Haynesworth as a bust.”

He’s right about that.  He will undoubtedly be remember for being an unprecedented malcontent and stomping on the unprotected face of Andre Gurode.  The Redskins decided to dance with the devil and apparently were surprised to have rohypnol slipped into their drink.  Now they are waking up to a new day sore in all the wrong places and publicly violated.

The Cowboys and Redskins both suffer from questions at the defensive line; this opportunity will allow us to place our respective problems into perspective.

Cost:  The first thing I think when it comes to Haynesworth is the fact that he received a $100 million dollar contract.  (According to Wikipedia, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were prepared to offer a $120 million dollar contract).  Certainly much of that money offered by the Redskins was monopoly money, and there was little expectation that Haynesworth would have received the full value of the contract.  However, he has received over $30 million for last season without playing a down in the 2010 season.

In 2008 the Tennesse Titans franchised Haynesworth and publicly commented that they had reservations about signing him to a large long-term contract because they were uncertain of his continued motivation.  Fast forward to July 2010 and Haynesworth failing two consecutive conditioning tests.

The Cowboys on the other hand have a first round draft pick in Marcus Spears who is slated to make 1.226 million for his services in 2010.  Spears has played in the 3-4 defense his entire career.  Spears is considered to be a bust by most of the national media.  In five years, Spears has totaled 8 sacks and 166 tackles (33.2 tackles per year on average, 1.6 sacks per year on average).  Those numbers are not eye popping.  Spears is a space eater on the defensive line and it is his responsibility to absorb and maintain the blocks of the offensive linemen in order for the linebackers to roam free and make the tackle.  Spears is good at his responsibility, but not irreplaceable.  Spears will make less than his backups, Stephen Bowen and Jason Hatcher (both scheduled to make $1.759 million in 2010).

Amazingly Spears has not complained about the situation.  He has expressed a desire to stay in Dallas and consequently sign a long-term contract, but that is hardly complaining.  Certainly it isn’t on par with Haynesworth’s behavior.

Injury:  Spears has started in every game since he was drafted in 2005.  The biggest issue that I have heard about Spears is that Bill Parcells was pushing to draft Spears prior to DeMarcus Ware.  Fortunately Jerry Jones stepped in and Ware was chosen before Spears.  As for Haynesworth, he has averaged 12.75 games played during his 8 year career.  Haynesworth turned 29 in June of 2010.  For a player who averages 3 missed games per year, it is difficult to believe that number would decrease as he gets older.

Performance: In this category Haynesworth blows away Spears, or does he?  As previously indicated, Spears’s job is to absorb and maintain blocks while maintaining his position at or near the line of scrimmage.  Haynesworth has totaled 308 tackles and 28 sacks during his career (38.5 tackles per year on average, 3.5 sacks per year on average).  My question is, are the extra 5 tackles and 1.9 sacks per year really worth an extra $13.8 million per year?  That’s not a fair assessment, however.  Haynesworth, similar to Spears, is responsible for absorbing blocks and keeping the linebackers free to run.  He also penetrates into the backfield disrupting rushing lanes and the coordination of the blocking scheme.  During the 2007 season the Titans rushing defense suffered tremendously when Haynesworth was out of the lineup.

During the first eight games the season (2007), when Haynesworth was in the trenches, the Titans gave up an average of 15.5 points a game. The most points an opponent scored on Tennessee was 36, which was racked up by Houston; still, the Titans managed to pull out a 38-36 win. Take out Houston’s 36-point afternoon, and the average against Tennessee drops to 12.5.

The previous two opponents — Jacksonville and Denver – capitalized on Haynesworth’s absence, scoring 28 and 34 points, respectively. With each of these two teams racking up 166 rushing yards apiece on the No. 4 run defense in the league, it’s clear the defense’s problem is the lack of Haynesworth.

Hayneworth was given credit for what simply could have been a statistical anomaly.  Suddenly he became a super hero rather than what he is, which is a very good defensive lineman.

Behavior: Haynesworth’s less than ideal behavior is well documented.  In 2003, he kicked his teammate, center Justin Hartwig, in the chest.  In October 2006, Hayneworth physically removed the helmet of Andre Gurode and proceed to stomp on his face.  Haynesworth was suspended for five games for the infraction.  Finally, arrest warrants were issued against Haynesworth in two Tennessee counties in May 2006 stemming from a traffic incident. Both sets of charges were dropped in June 2006. The judge in the Putnam County case tossed the charges on the grounds that the alleged offense happened out of their jurisdiction. In Smith County, the district attorney dismissed the charges. In March 2009, Haynesworth was indicted on two misdemeanor traffic charges stemming from a December 2008 car accident in Tennessee.

As for Spears… I can’t think of a single questionable thing he has done.  Despite have a multitude of opportunities to voice frustration, Spears has been a model teammate and player.

So what’s the moral of the story?  The first would be that statistics don’t tell the entire story.  Haynesworth is a dominant player; however, Spears is a quality person and player and should not simply be dismissed as a bust because his talents don’t translate to easily decipherable statistics.  Spears may not be signed by the Cowboys for 2011, but he has not been a bust.  Despite the praise and adulation lauded at Haynesworth, it certainly can be suggested that he has been an enormously monumental bust for the Redskins.

The future is uncertain; however, you do not have to be clairvoyant to see the NFL will undergo dramatic changes over the next few years. The NFL players association is considered one of the weakest unions among the professional sports (save for hockey). Essentially, what the owners want, they get. The players are well compensated, but as a whole, they have historically been pushed around at the negotiating table.

It should be noted that Gene Upshaw was the head of the players union in previous negotiations. Presently that role is manned by DeMaurice Smith (a former trial lawyer and litigator). It is not inconceivable that Smith will attempt to make his mark by negotiating harder and more firmly than his predecessor. This could lead to an extended period where college football is the only available option making Sundays a day of remembrance.

However, for the purposes of this article I will consider that players have historically been less than unified against the NFL management. Therefore, while Smith may increase health benefits, pension allotments, and team size, though the NFL management will undoubtedly get its way.

First of all, the NFL regular season will expand to 18 games. There won’t be many who mourn the death of two pre-season games. Players don’t wish to risk injury that is everpresent on the football field (as evidenced by Steve Smith who broke his arm in a flag football game). Owners will not miss the half filled stadium. Fans with season tickets won’t miss the mandatory purchase of tickets for two pre-season games (though they will still pay for one). As a side note, it is unconscionable that the owners charged the same price for regular and pre-season games.

Compound the regular season with two bye weeks, and it is evident the football landscape will be moving from a 17 week regular season to an 20 week season. Television contracts will increase, sponsorship dollars will increase, and while increased injuries may correspond to an extended season, SOMEONE wins the Super Bowl every year. Generally that someone is the healthier team, but not necessarily the better team (as evidenced by the Giants defeating the Patriots in Super Bowl XLII).

The great thing about football is that every game counts. In 2005, the Cowboys missed the playoffs due to a tie breaker (presuming they would have beating the Rams in the final game if they still had a playoff pulse).  In 2008, the Cowboys were ousted from the playoffs as they were behind in the standing by only 1/2 game. Certainly in baseball there are ties at the end of the season. One game out of 162 is ten fold less consequential than one game out of 16. The increase to 18 games in this comparison is statistically inconsequential, but most will agree watering down one’s product can be detrimental.

Baseball and basketball have such long seasons. At times it feels like they play game seven for the championship, take a week off and start the new season.  For the average fan, the outcome of games become white noise barely registering on their consciousness.  Fans long for football. Stories about Patrick Crayton are prevalent because fans are starved for the only panacea we need. Seriously, why else would people focus so much energy on a fourth string veteran who has never been to a pro-bowl? We tell our children not to gorge themselves with chocolate on Halloween because we know it will make them sick. Walking away from the NFL version of an all you can eat buffet may be the smart thing, though none of us will.

As for the pre-season games, we have grown accustomed to the starters playing one quarter in the first game, a half in the second game, three quarters in the third (as this is the dress rehearsal for the regular season), and sitting out in the final pre-season game. With only 2 preseason games, the third string may never see the field. Before you scoff at the 3rd string, please remember that Tony Romo was the 3rd string QB behind Drew Henson in his first year.  With only two pre-season games, starters will likely play a half in one game, and 3/4′s of the next game.  I don’t see Jesse Holley hitting the field.

Certainly the coaches saw Romo’s potential on the practice field, but would they sacrifice precious game time to a player with no pedigree and little investment by the team? Without game time, would Donovan McNabb been ushered out in favor for Kevin Kolb? How did Miles Austin‘s performance on the practice field affect his ability to become the #1 WR? In the 2009 pre-season, Austin caught a total of three balls for 44 yards. It’s not a huge surprise that the Cowboys coaches were unaware of what he would do once he became a starter (though they were aware of his potential).

The NFL doesn’t cherish its record book the way baseball does; however, certain numbers resonate with fans. That guy, he’s a 1,000 yard back. In a 16 game schedule, that breaks down to 63 yards per game. In an 18 game schedule, it’s only 55 yards per game. Both are relatively unimpressive and you wouldn’t sign the guy to a long-term contract, but recall that Troy Hambrick was 28 yards away from 1,000 in 2003. It’s a better than a coin flips chance that he does get to 1,000 with an extra two games.

While the consideration of a 1,000 yard back won’t be greatly affected by the addition of 2 games, there will be a huge increase in the number of 2,000 yard backs. At present, there is Eric Dickerson, Jamal Lewis, Barry Sanders, Terrell Davis, OJ Simpson, and Chris Johnson. That is elite company; however, with two additional games, a very good 1700 yard back will be an less than deserving player among a Mount Rushmore of backs. Jimmy Carter and both George Bushes do not belong on Mt. Rushmore.

And we finally reach the end of the season. Watching a night game played in the snow can be entertaining. Watching the Patriots demolish the Titans in the snow is anything but (unless you are a Patriots fan). The NFL will continue to start the season around Labor Day. Fast forward 20 weeks, add three weeks for the playoffs, plus a bye (or the Pro Bowl), and finally the Super Bowl. The Super Bowl will be played in late February. It it still winter, but the temperatures in the north east tend to be at their most frigid around January and early February. When the Super Bowl is played in New Jersey in 2014, there may be a slight chance of pleasant weather. It won’t be bikini weather, but fans won’t lose any fingers or toes.  Though it is Jersey, so they may not have their full complement of digits, let alone teeth.

Here is one problem that the NFL may not be paying any attention. Valentines Day. The one day where men all over the country are OBLIGATED to set aside their own wishes and shower affection on the one person in life who can make their lives truly miserable if they don’t.

More often than not, Valentines weekend will butt up against the NFC/AFC conference championships. Those games are only played on Sunday, leaving Saturday free for love.  I once tried taking my significant other to a Valentines Day dinner the day before Valentines day (smartly to avoid the rush and the crowds).  Ignorantly, I thought I had met my obligation for celebrating the holiday.  The following day, Valentines Day, I had nothing prepared.  Anyone want to guess how that ended?

Most men buy flowers, chocolates, jewelry, and take their significant others to dinner and a show. There are others to take their loved ones on a get away to make up for the negligence that was suffered DURING FOOTBALL SEASON AND THE PLAYOFFS! Not all women will object to a day of watching football. I’m inclined to say most women will object to an afternoon of football on their getaway.

So prepare for the new NFL. It will be a longer season, filled with injuries, more beer commercials, statistical records that will ring hollow, greater ignorance of the non-starters, and a very angry significant other if you sacrifice her lone weekend of love for watching the best reality television has to offer.