The data suggest that Fitzgerald will hit pay dirt against Dallas

This Sunday, the 7-4 Dallas Cowboys will face off against the 4-7 Arizona Cardinals in the desert. Both sides of the ball have various fantasy studs that are must starts in what is expected to become an aerial shoot-out. Here are my starts, sits and a sleeper pick for the big game.

Starts

Larry Fitzgerald – Arguably the best wide receiver in the game should be an every week starter for you. But you might have had some luck later in the draft or through the waiver wire with names like A.J. Green and Victor Cruz. So sitting Fitzgerald could be in the realm of possibility. But Fitz has scored three touchdowns in his last three games and it appears he’ll have Kevin Kolb back in the pocket. The Dallas defense will be focused in on stopping Beanie Wells and getting pressure on Kolb. I see a lot of throwing in this game and Fitzgerald stands to benefit due to his size. The Dallas corner backs have struggled against taller receivers all year.  Here are the numbers from opposing “big” receivers versus the Cowboys secondary in the last three weeks alone: Brandon Marshall (6’4) – 5 recs, 103 yards, 1 TD; Jabar Gaffney (6’2) – 7 recs, 115 yards, 1 TD; David Nelson (6’5) – 4 recs, 31 yards, 1 TD. Based on the data, Fitzgerald is pretty much guaranteed to score at least once with the possibility for more.  (more…)