Mark Sanchez will be entering his second year as starting QB for the NY Jets.  Sanchez lead his team to the AFC championship game as a rookie which is a feat accomplished by Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco.  Not surprisingly, both quarterbacks heavily relied on a solid running game and an outstanding defense, just like Sanchez.  Roethlisberger followed up his rookie season with the worst winning quarterback performance in Super Bowl history; Flacco’s sophomore season he lead his team to a 2nd round defeat against the Indianapolis Colts.

Considering the above, it is not outside the realm of reason for Coach Ryan to have faith in the 2nd year quarterback.  I am not a believer, however.  Actually I am a firm believer that they are the third best team in their division and are deeply flawed.

While a teams previous year rarely has a definitive impact upon the outcome of the following season (e.g. the Titans going from 13-3 to starting the season 0-6), it is not impossible to divine whether a teams success was related to their schedule or whether they indeed had a breakthrough.

Only considering the Jet’s final 8 regular season games (as the defense would have an understanding of the new system installed and Sanchez would be comfortable in the system), the Jets beat Carolina, Buffalo, Tampa Bay, Indianapolis, and Cincinnati.  They lost to Jacksonville, New England, and Atlanta.  Everyone remembers that Indianapolis elected to rest their starters mid-way through the game while they were nursing a thin lead.  Shortly after replacing Peyton Manning, Curtis Painter literally threw away the game when he was intercepted by Dwight Lowery for a touchdown.  The following week, the Jets played a lame duck Cincinnati team who rested their starters with the intent of not showing any of their game plan for the playoff game against the Jets the following week.

The team won 5 games at the end of the season and two of them were literally gimmes.  The remaining three games were against world beaters like Carolina (8-8), Buffalo (6-10), and Tampa Bay (3-13).  There is the argument that it wasn’t what the Jets did in the regular season, which is why prognosticators and Ryan are so high on the Jets.  It was the post-season.

The Jets beat the Cincinnati Bengals and the San Diego Chargers in successive weeks.  Darrelle Revis’s star had never shown brighter.  Is all this hype really based upon two wins?  Or is it based upon their 4-1 record in their final five games?  Afterall, the Jets beat a Bengals team with a quarterback nursing a sore arm, their 2nd WR playing in Seattle, and their 3rd WR resting in peace.  The Chargers lost by 3 points after Nate Kaeding missed a 40 yard field goal which kept the margin at 10 points at the time.  The Jets won those games, but it does not suggest they would win even one playoff game in January 2011.  When the Colts actually played to win (prior to Manning being benched and during the AFC Championship game) they outscored the Jets 45 to 27.

More important than what the Jets did in the 2009 season and playoffs is what the Jets have done during their off-season to prepare for the 2010 season.  The Jets signed LaDanian Tomlinson, Jason Taylor, Laveranues Coles, Brodney Pool, and Mark Brunell.  They also brought in Santonio Holmes and Antonio Cromartie via trade.  Certainly it could be said that the Jets in an uncapped 2010 season have elected to bring in veteran talent to backup their front line players.  It could also be said that most of the new players are well past their prime and they simply collected a number of players who will be dominated by their opponent if they ever hit the field.

Tomlinson and Cromartie will receive a majority of the playing time out of the free agent pool along with Holmes after returning from his 4 game suspension.  Tomlinson replaces an incredibly popular Thomas Jones.  Jones wasn’t simply popular among the Jets fanbase, but he was a leader in the Jets locker room.  When Jones was cut, there was an inordinate amount of grumbling from the players who believed it was unfair and unjust of Jets management to release Jones for what appeared to be trivial financial reasons.  Especially considering that Jones had one of the best seasons of his career in 2009.  At this point, it can be assumed Jones will be nearing the end of his career partly due to age, and mostly due to playing in Kansas City.  The question is whether the 2010 version of Tomlinson can be as productive as the 2009 version of Jones.

Tomlinson is inarguably the best running back in the game… 5 years ago.  When the wheels fall off on a running back, they come off quickly.  Towards the latter years of his career, Emmith Smith was a shadow of his earlier self.  The vision, speed, quickness, and desire had dissipated.  If the Cowboys were a playoff contender during the early 00′s, Smith would have been the weak link.  As it was, Smith was still a star on a team that was bereft of talent.  A fading Tomlinson is going to a talented team with high expectations.  If the Jets expect to improve upon their 2009 season, they will have to rely on Shonn Greene or Joe McKnight.  Leon Washington is in Seattle and as previously indicated, Jones is in KC.  What the Jets may be missing is the explosiveness of Washington (when healthy), and the heart of Jones.

For Tomlinson, it may be unfair to say that many of his Charger teammates do not miss him.  Tomlinson and Philip Rivers have acknowledged that it was the right time for him to leave San Diego, and other teammates stated Tomlinson wasn’t a team first player.  What should concern Jets fans is that they not only lost an offensive leader, but swapped for a selfish player who sucks energy from a team.  This storyline will play out over the season.

Cromartie will play well in 2010.  He is in the last year of his contract and is looking to be paid commensurate with his hype.  He was perceived to be a lazy player in San Diego.  While this may or may not be the case, he should have a good 2010 season.  As for Holmes, he was a Super Bowl MVP.  He’s a good WR, and the best WR on the Jets squad.  I have also believed him to be a very good #2 WR.  Unfortunately for the Jets, I believe Braylon Edwards is also a very good #2 WR.  Tom Brady won several Super Bowls with #2 and #3 WR’s, so it can be done, though Sanchez has quite a way before he can spoken of in the same sentence as Brady.

As for the Jets’s 2010 draft class, they selected Kyle Wilson, CB, Vladamir Ducasse, OL (a very raw prospect from a small school who won’t contribute immediately), Joe McKnight, RB, and John Conner, FB.  The players may contribute on the field, but it would be surprising if the players have big rookie seasons.  There does not appear to be a Percy Harvin or Brian Cushing who will contribute immediately and impressively.  With the Tomlinson situations illustrated above, certainly McKnight may have the best opportunity to contribute.  Wilson should not have to start unless there is an injury to Cromartie or Revis.  Revis will be resigned and there will be smiles and glad-handing, until the season starts.

The Jets do have a good defense with a defensive minded head coach.  Beware those who are prone to hyperbole.  This is not the second coming of the ’86 Bears, and there is a chance the defense will regress.  The Jets do share a similarity to the Cowboys.  When the Jets do anything, the media covers it (because of the size of the New York market).  When Dallas does anything, people hear about it (because of the large national following for the Cowboys).  Players receive more recognition and consequently, more fame.  Recognition and fame does not automatically translate into improved talent though it may perceived as such.  Kenny Gant is one of the most famous Cowboys of the 90′s, but there are 15+ better special teamers than Gant in the league today who live in anonymity.

To surmise, the Jets were a 7-7 team before beating two teams who stopped caring.  They beat one wounded team, barely beat a good team who’s kicker missed what should be a gimme at the NFL level, and they have questionably better talent than the year prior.  On “paper”, the Jets play 10 games where their opponent is either as good or better than the Jets (Ravens, Patriots, Dolphins, Broncos, Packers, Texans, & Steelers).  If they sweep the 6 games where they are better than their opponent (Bills, Lions, Browns, Bengals, & Bears), they only have to win four of the more difficult games to have a playoff spot.  I don’t think they will get those four wins.  They won’t be awful, but they won’t be in Dallas in early February celebrating.

If you type the name of Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger into Google’s search bar, nine of the ten most popular search options are not football-related.

The search options that come up are things like ‘Ben Roethlisberger accuser’ in reference to the 20-year old college student who accused Roethlisberger of sexual assault.

It’s the second time in the past eight months that Roethlisberger has been accused of sexual misconduct with a woman.

Currently, Roethlisberger is meeting with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell. Surely they’re discussing some of what Ocmulgee Circuit District Attorney Fred Bright said on Monday-namely that Roethlisberger fed drinks to this young woman until she was visibly very intoxicated, had a security guard lead her to the bathroom with him following shortly afterwards.

There’s no way that Bright could prove rape in this case. He claimed that he didn’t have enough for a case.

The NFL’s fan base doesn’t need enough to have a case against Roethlisberger. For all intents and purposes, they’ve indicted the Steelers quarterback already.

In court, the prosecuting attorney would have to prove that what went on in that bathroom was not consensual sex. Right now, all they’ve got is a small sample of male DNA, not enough to provide a profile that they could use to match with Roethlisberger. There is no video recording from the restroom, no audio recording and the testimony of the victim would not stand in court because of the amount of alcohol she had consumed.

The NFL fan doesn’t need all that. They’ve seen enough-his motorcycle accident where he was riding without a helmet and a permit, another case of sexual misconduct with Andrea McNulty and breaking news of another young woman who claims the quarterback forced himself upon her in Las Vegas-to know that Big Ben is a big tool. His reputation as a man that will force himself upon women now precedes him.

Think of it this way: if you were a night club owner, would you want Roethlisberger and his crew in your establishment?

Months ago, it would be great publicity and the guy probably would’ve dropped a couple hundred dollars without breaking a sweat. But given these new charges, you’ve got to stop the guy at the door, hope your bouncers are bigger than his security guards and ask him to go somewhere else before he gets all rapey in a bathroom stall.

It’ll come as a huge shock if Roethlisberger escapes a suspension from Goodell today. Most people are calling for at least a four-game suspension, the same that new Jets wide receiver and former Roethlisberger target (ha) Santonio Holmes will serve for substance abuse.

I don’t care that Roethlisberger has not been convicted of anything. Goodell won’t care either.

Roethlisberger continues to put himself in situations where he has women making these accusations against him. Goodell is tired of the negative publicity it’s giving the league, so Roethlisberger should expect to take a seat for the first four games of the regular season at the very least.

I don’t think the Steelers will look to trade or cut Roethlisberger. It’s interesting that Holmes, who did have a rough few years, would have been cut had the Jets not stepped in and offered a fifth-round pick and Roethlisberger will likely remain on the team. Holmes has been convicted of more crimes than Roethlisberger has, but the quarterback has brought more negative press on the organization than Holmes has by a longshot.

It’s not a contract issue, either. Roethlisberger has certainly violated his morality clause in his contract, so the Steelers are more than likely off the hook for whatever they owe him.

At any rate, the NFL should be without a starting quarterback for a few games. Big Ben didn’t get convicted, but with as dumb as he seems, I wouldn’t be too shocked to see him in hot water again sometime soon.

UPDATE: Upon leaving the his meeting with Goodell, which lasted about three hours, Roethlisberger called the meeting “very productive”. There has been no word yet on whether or not Roethlisberger will be suspended.

We often hear it takes three years to determine whether a draft was indeed a “good” draft.  I wasn’t here last year, so I will cover 2006 today, and later in the week, 2007.  At the top of every draft, you have your can’t miss prospects like Jamarcus Russell, Charles Rogers, and Ryan Leaf.  Draft grades are given Sunday night and some fans are dancing in the street.  Even those fans who’s team got an F can look forward to the prospects disproving all of the experts with their play on Sundays.  All teams SHOULD get an incomplete immediately after the draft, but they don’t.  So let’s look back at the 2006 Cowboys draft class to see whether the grades given at the time were even close (CBS Sports gave Dallas a B-, USA Today gave 2 our of 4 stars, and Sports Illustrated gave the Cowboys a C+).  Also, keeping in mind that it isn’t about who you take, but rather who you didn’t take (take Sam Bowie, please).

1st round Bobby Carpenter at 18

Pro-Bowl: No

Starter: No

Still on the team: Yes

Player(s) you could have had instead:  Antonio Cromartie, Santonio Holmes, DeAngelo Williams, Nick Mangold

Analysis:  Cromartie is a questionable character player who avoided tackles in 2009.  Holmes is a good WR, but is a #2 at best.  Drafting Williams would have been redundant considering Barber and Jones a productive duo.  Mangold is a good center and would play left guard, or force Gurode to move to guard.

2010 20/20 hindsight grade: C+

Analysis:  Bobby Carpenter is a solid nickel contributor and could be a starter on a team with less talent.  He may be a square peg, but that isn’t his fault that he was drafted by a team with round holes.  While there was some talent available that would start on the Cowboys, the players would not fill a glaring hole.

2nd round Anthony Fasano at 53rd overall (original pick 49)

Pro-Bowl: No

Starter: Yes, for the Dolphins

Still on the team: No

Player(s) you could have had instead: Marcus McNeil, Devin Hester, Maurice Jones-Drew

2010 20/20 hindsight grade: D for the Cowboys, but overall a B

Analysis: While with the Cowboys, Fasano was better known for his drops than his touchdown receptions.  While he was a solid blocker, he was traded to the Dolphins for a fourth round pick.  For the Dolphins in two seasons he has logged 65 catches and 9 touchdowns.  He also has been described as the best blocking tight end in the league.  Obviously the Cowboys would be better served to have a young tackle prospect or an amazing return man, but the pick wasn’t an awful pick.

3rd round Jason Hatcher at 92nd overall (original pick 80)

Pro-Bowl: No

Starter: No

Still on the team: Yes

Player(s) you could have had instead: Freddie Keiaho, Owen Daniels, Leon Washington, Stephen Gostkowski, Brandon Marshall

2010 20/20 hindsight grade: C+

Analysis: Hatcher is a productive backup.  While he is not a B- player, being drafted in the 3rd round improves his grade.  Gostkowski is effectively kicking in New England, but drafting a kicker in the 3rd round will get most GM’s fired.  Folk played as effectively until he imploded in 2009.  Brandon Marshall is a productive grease fire.  Under the tutelage of Terrell Owens, the team may have been explosive, just like diarrhea can be.  Messy, too messy.

4th round Skyler Green at 125th overall

Pro-Bowl: No

Starter: No

Still on the team: No

Player(s) you could have had instead: Elvis Dumervil, Willie Colon

2010 20/20 hindsight grade: F

Analysis: I don’t think Dumervil would be effective in the 3-4 defense other than as a situational pass rusher.  Colon would contribute and help solidify if not add depth to the offensive line.  Either way, this was a throw away pick.

5th round Pat Watkins at 138th overall

Pro-Bowl:

Starter:

Still on the team:

Player(s) you could have had instead: No one noteworthy between this pick and the next pick

2010 20/20 hindsight grade: B-

Analysis: Watkins isn’t a great safety, but he is a good special teams contributor and has been a warm body to occupy space in center field when called upon.  It wasn’t a great pick, but he is still on the team.

6th round Montavious Stanley at 182nd overall

Pro-Bowl:

Starter:

Still on the team:

Player(s) you could have had instead: Antoine Bethea

2010 20/20 hindsight grade: F

Analysis: Montavious gets the tourist award.  In four years he has played for six teams: Dallas, Jacksonville twice, St. Louis, Atlanta, and New Orleans.  He has zero starts in the past 2 years, but has logged 53 tackles in the last 3 years.  Bethea averages 80ish tackles per year and is a solid player.  At  the very least, he would have been a better option than Watkins.

7th round Pat McQuistan at 211th overall

Pro-Bowl: No

Starter: No

Still on the team: Yes

Player(s) you could have had instead: Cortland Finnegan

2010 20/20 hindsight grade: B+

Analysis: McQuistan provided depth on the o-line.  While in the game, he has been less than impressive.  He is a warm body and plays better then a 7th round pick when called upon.  Finnegan is a surprise just like Jay Ratliff.  I don’t blame Jerry for not drafting either him or Colston, but just like Jay Ratliff, it is great when you find that gem in the rough.  Finnegan is a tenacious cornerback.  Unfortunately, the Cowboys traded for the wrong Titans cornerback.

7th round EJ Whitley at 224th overall

Pro-Bowl: No

Starter: No

Still on the team: No.

Player(s) you could have had instead: Marques Colston

2010 20/20 hindsight grade: F

Analysis:  Another wasted pick, but the Cowboys were in good company as many 7th round picks don’t make the team.

Final analysis: The perfect draft would have been Nick Mangold in the first, Marcus McNeil in the 2nd, Brandon Marshall in the 3rd, Elvis Dumervil in the 4th, Watkins in the 5th, Antoine Bethea in the 6th, and Cortland Finnegan and Marques Colston in the 7th.  We live in the real world though.  Marshall is a pill in the locker room, Dumervil is too small to DE in the 3-4 and while he is a very good pass rush specialist, we can’t predict how he would do as an OLB.  When creating a perfect draft, you only have one of your chose players listed, it is not a good sign.

Final grade based on the misses, the 4 players still left on the team (two of which were day two players):  C-, maybe a D+ if grading on a curve.