Jan 27, 2012; Ko Olina, HI, USA; NFC linebacker DeMarcus Ware of the Dallas Cowboys (94) holds his children Marley (left and Junior (right) after their team photo at NFC media day for the 2012 Pro Bowl at the JW Marriott Ihilani Resort. Mandatory Credit: US PRESSWIRE

For those who did not watch the Pro Bowl this year, the AFC beat the NFC – 59 to 41.  Whatever.  Some played like it was a regular season game, though most did tone it down quite a bit.  Boring.  It was fun to see all the best players of 2011 get together.  After all, its all about the stars of the game, right?  I guess.

Do I sound less than thrilled?  A little cynical maybe?  Well, as a Cowboys fan, I think I have a right to be.  To begin with, only two Cowboys players went to Hawaii, least since 2002.   I thought we were loaded with talent?  Only Cowboys fans still think that, but regardless, to only pick 2 – why these two – .  I also find it ironic that those two, DeMarcus Ware and Jay Ratliff, were not only not as dominant in 2011 as in past years, but also came from the weakest of the three parts of the Dallas Cowboys in 2011, the Defense.  If the Pro Bowl were to represent the best players on each team from 2011, then for Dallas they would come from the Offense. (more…)

I have to give credit to SI’s Peter King for coming up with this great concept for an article. I disagree with him rating us as the 10th-best team in the NFL–picking us after the Dolphins and the Panthers is bordering on lunacy–but I have to give him credit on this idea of writing about things he thinks he thinks about the NFL.

I’ll be focusing on the Cowboys, of course.

1. The Cowboys have to have one of the most difficult schedules in the NFL: The Cowboys get the new-look Redskins the first week of the season and won’t have any tape on Donovan McNabb. The Redskins were awful last year but it’s the NFL and upsets happen. After that it gets worse: at Houston in the third week won’t be a walk in the park, an early bye week followed by 13 more games including at Minnesota, at Green Bay, home against New Orleans then away to Arizona and Philly to finish the year.

2. If the Cowboys make it to the playoffs, they’ll make a run: This is the upside to playing this hard a schedule. The Cowboys will probably play more playoff teams during the year than teams that will have their golf clubs out after week 17. They’re going to be playing playoff football all year and they’ll be better for it.

3. Dez Bryant will start one game before week 8: The guy is too good to keep off the field. Cornerback Mike Jenkins said that Bryant has the potential to be the best wide receiver on the team. Roy Williams certainly has to see Bryant in his rearview mirror and all the comments he’s making about the work he’s putting in this summer suggests that he knows he’ll have to perform to keep his job.

4. The Cowboys won’t sign another safety: Any dreamers thinking that the Cowboys will work out some kind of trade for O.J. Atogwe ought to wake up now. It’s not going to happen. That’s ok, though, because Alan Ball and Mike Hamlin will be able to handle one of the safety spots. If it were up to me, I’d have Gerald Sensabaugh at free safety and let Hamlin play strong safety. I think Sensabaugh has better range and Hamlin is a better tackler (not in a Roy Williams way–the guy can cover pretty well).

5. The Cowboys will create more turnovers than they did last year: The Cowboys defense was one of the best defenses in the league last year if you don’t use turnovers to judge defenses–so the Cowboys just had a pretty good defense last year. Only 21 turnovers in 16 games last year won’t cut it, especially with DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer rushing off the edges.

6. Anthony Spencer will have 10 sacks this year: This guy is figuring out the NFL and he had six sacks last year. He’s got 10.5 for his career and he’ll nearly double that total this year as he’s getting better and better.

7. The Rams will come out ahead in the Bobby Carpenter-Alex Barron trade: Barron has to beat out Doug Free or Marc Columbo or hope for one of them to get hurt in order to see the field–I’m not buying that there’s really an open competition for the left tackle spot. Carpenter will get to start over in a defensive scheme he’s more comfortable with. Am I saying it was a bad trade for us? No. We weren’t going to be using Carpenter after taking Sean Lee in this year’s draft and we needed the depth at offensive tackle. It was a smart move for both parties, but the Rams will see an immediate impact from Carpenter.

8. Mike Jenkins will become one of the elite cornerbacks in the NFL this year: Jenkins is a big, physical corner that can keep up with quick receivers while still being able to fight with larger receivers. If he can put up some better stats and intercept a few more passes, he’ll be on the Pro Bowl roster from the start and will be considered within the top six or seven corners in the game.

9. Tony Romo will throw at least five more interceptions but ten more touchdowns than last year: Adding Bryant and having an other year with Martellus Bennett will surely help in the red zone. Bryant isn’t the biggest or fastest receiver, but he fights for jump balls in the end zone. He also has better hands than most of the other Cowboys receivers–I’m not sure he has better hands than Miles Austin but I think he does. I also think Romo will be behind in a few games this year and he’ll probably force a few, but that’s ok. These things happen.

10. The Cowboys won’t be playing in this year’s Super Bowl: I don’t think they’re quite there yet. They’re a strong team and have to be considered amongst the best in the NFC. They just aren’t Super Bowl winners yet I don’t think. The pressure is on the Cowboys this year because the Super Bowl is being played in Arlington. I think they need one more year. I’d love to be wrong here, but that’s what I think.

…I think.

Miles Austin had a breakout season in 2009 recording 81 receptions, 1,320 yards receiving, with 11 td’s earning his first trip to the pro-bowl.  Amazingly he did this all in only 12 games as a starter (In the first four games he contributed 5 catches for 81 yards).  Miles is a restricted free agent this year and is also subject to being frachised by the Dallas Cowboys.

In the NFL, quarterbacks can excel for one year and then are mediocre for the remainder of their career.  Scott Mitchell, to the dismay of the Detroit Lions fans, and Derek Anderson, to the continuing dismay of Browns fans, are good examples of this phenomena.  In 2007 Tony Romo was playing in the final year of a restricted free agent contract; the Cowboys went 13-3 in the regular season.  Miracle win after miracle win only added to Romo’s value and the contract was signed after the mid-point that season.  The point is that Jerry Jones, general manager/owner of the Dallas Cowboys, was cautious and did not break the bank on a player who only played effectively for little more than half a season.

Wide receivers tend to be more stable in their production.  Generally it takes a year or two for them to acclimate to the pro-game, and once they do they tend to flourish.  There are inevitably exceptions, but none come to mind.  Maybe Jerry Porter, but the Raiders seem to be playing a different game than the rest of the league.

Considering Romo’s contract as a road map, Austin may not get a long term contract this off-season.  It should be noted that when Romo signed his contract there was a salary cap and the Cowboys were 2 years from moving into the Palace at Dallas.  It will come though – with continued production Jerry Jones has never let a star player leave for greener pastures.  Jimmy Smith, former Jacksonville Jaguars WR, is one of the lone exceptions, but during his 2 year tenure in Dallas he was frequently injured and unproductive.  In a storyline that I simply didn’t recall, Jerry Jones instigated a rift with Smith.  Jones did not believe he should pay Smith for the 1993 season as Smith was unavailable due to complications with his appendix being removed (a non-football related injury).  Chris Canty was allowed to seek greener pastures after the 2008 season.  In an article by Peter King, Canty was only one 11th hour offer from the Giants from crawling back to the Cowboys with his tail between his legs.  While Canty was a quality player, he was not a star nor was the worth the contract he received from the Giants.

What does all this mean?  I believe that Jerry Jones’s history of being cheap with players is exactly that, history.  Emmit Smith was the last hold-out of consequence, and Jerry Jones has used the franchise tag only sparingly in the past decade.  Austin will receive a high unrestricted free agent tender, $3.168 million.  As the new collective bargaining agreement begins to materialize, Jones will develop a contract that mirrors the CBA.  If the salary cap is expected to return, Austin will receive a front loaded contract to take advantage of the uncapped 2010 year.  If there isn’t a salary cap, we may expect Jerry to offer a contract with escalating numbers.  The worst case scenario is if a contract isn’t forth coming while Austin is still producing.  This may suggest that a 2011 lockout is looming.  If this is the case, Miles may lose sleep, but the fans biggest nightmare is on the horizon.