FIRST QUARTER
- The Tao of Garrett…

At first glance, it may seem counterproductive to beat your head into the wall that is the Redskins rush defense. Washington has a top five rush defense while the Cowboys are a lowly 31st in rush offense. Dallas also has a prolific quarterback/receiver combination with Romo in the top seven in every passing category and Dez Bryant in the top eight in every receiving category. Add in the fact that Washington has trouble defending the pass (30th in pass defense) and it would seem that throwing the ball is the way to win. This is where yin needs yang. DeMarco Murray MUST have 20+ rushes. Dallas is 8-0 when this happens. Not only would this open up the passing game, it may also be necessary since there is a chance for snow at game time.

SECOND QUARTER
- Do not fear the phenom…

For all the celebration of Robert Griffin, III, I feel people need to realize that the other quarterback in this game is just as flashy and just as good, if not better. Let’s go to the tale of the tape. Romo has 26 completions over 25 yards with nine of those resulting in a touchdown. Griffin has 24 such completions, eight of which produced a touchdown. They also are almost exactly equal in completion percentage. Tony Romo can and will win this game if he is afforded the necessary time to scan the Washington secondary. The only difference between the two is Griffin’s ability to run with the ball. Dallas must decide which facet of Griffin’s game they want to take away and commit to that philosophy.

THIRD QUARTER
- Earn Your Star… 

May 23, 2012; Irving, TX, USA; Dallas Cowboys cornerback Morris Claiborne (24) stretches with Brandon Carr (39) during organized team activities at Dallas Cowboys headquarters. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

If Dallas to win this game, I believe they have to put their faith in their two biggest off-season acquisitions; Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne. The Redskins do not have a receiver in the top 70 in the league in receptions or yards and only one in the top 50 in touchdowns (Santana Moss is ranked 11th). I feel very strongly that you allow Carr and Claiborne to cover them up one-on-one on the outside and play 2-deep safety coverage all game to take away the big play ball. If the Redskins go to three or four receiver sets, then play zone and blitz up the middle while holding the edges to make Griffin make quick decisions in the pocket. Essentially, play to eliminate the big play that doomed Dallas in Big D on Thanksgiving Day.

FOURTH QUARTER
- PROTECT THE BALL!!!

Simple concept. The biggest difference between the Redskins and Cowboys is not about any one player or any specific unit. It’s turnovers. Washington is +14 in turnover differential, good for third best in the NFL. Dallas is -10 which is the eighth worst in the NFL and third worst in the NFC. The Thanksgiving day was gone before halftime, due almost exclusively to turnovers. With the Redskins leading 7-3 and Dallas in possession, an interception throw lead to a touchdown drive from the Redskins. The following Cowboys possession was a three and out. The Redskins scored again making the game 21-3. Another Cowboys possession, another turnover and another touchdown drive from Washington… 28-3. Game over. Dallas is statistically better than Washington in almost every category so protecting the football should result in victory, as well as a playoff berth.

The prediction: Even though the Cowboys are 2-10 in their last 12 season-ending games, something about this team and this game specifically has me believing in them. My call is Cowboys 31, Redskins 20.

Last week was a fairly solid effort as far as picks were concerned. Barring an epic meltdown, I should finish the regular season above 50%. For this year specifically, that feels like a major accomplishment.

LAST WEEK: 10-6 (.625)
SEASON TOTAL: 122-118 (.508)

N.Y.Jets at BUFFALO -3.5
Miami at NEW ENGLAND -10
+2.5 BALTIMORE at Cincinnati
-7 HOUSTON at Indianapolis
+4.5 JACKSONVILLE at Tennessee
+7.5 PHILADELPHIA at N.Y. Giants
-3 CHICAGO at Detroit
-3 GREEN BAY at Minnesota
Carolina at NEW ORLEANS -5.5
Kansas City at DENVER -16
Arizona at SAN FRANCISCO -16.5
St. Louis at SEATTLE -10.5
+3 DALLAS at Washington

* At the time of this article, Cleveland at Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay at Atlanta and Oakland at San Diego had no line, therefore no pick was made.

FIRST QUARTER
– Close the door…

Unlike the recent years, this team is proving itself to be able to seal the deal. The 2012 Cowboys are undefeated when they are tied or have a lead going into the fourth quarter (5-0). The Saints on the other hand are all or nothing. They are 6-0 when they have a lead going into the fourth quarter and 0-8 when they have trailed. Simply put, if the Cowboys are leading at the end of three quarters, they have a very solid chance of getting to 9-6.

SECOND QUARTER
– Cool Brees?

The 2012 version of Drew Brees is not the same guy we are used to seeing. He leads the league in interceptions and has already tied his second highest career mark for most in a season with two games left. His passer rating is the second worst it has been in the last five years, while his completion percentage is the worst it has been in almost ten years. On the flip side of that coin, the Saints are first in passing touchdowns, second in passing yards and third in pass attempts. For Dallas to triumph, they will need to expose the flaws and not succumb to the always dangerous Drew Brees.

THIRD QUARTER
– Control the clock…

Both the Saints and the Cowboys are in the top six teams in the league in third down conversion percentage. Dallas (third at 44.4%) will need to keep this pace up to not only have an opportunity to score the points necessary to keep up with high-powered Saints’ offense but also make Drew Brees impatient by keeping him on the sideline. Enter DeMarco Murray. Getting the running game going should not be too much trouble as the Saints have the second to worst ranked rush defense.  If Murray gets 20+ carries or eclipses the 100-yard mark, the Cowboys will most likely be victorious.

Dec 16, 2012; Arlington, TX, USA; Dallas Cowboys running back DeMarco Murray (29) runs with the ball against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Cowboys Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

FOURTH QUARTER
– Air conditioning…

This game will likely come down to a duel between Brees and Romo. This is where the Cowboys become the conundrum to solve. The Cowboys would seem to have an advantage when you look at pass defense, however looks may be deceiving. Dallas is ranked 14th in yards and 13th in touchdowns allowed, yet they also see the third least amount of pass attempts per game. Dallas also is tied for last in interceptions which poses another issue.  Fourteen of Brees’ eighteen interceptions have come in losses. Bottom line, I don’t forsee Tony Romo putting Dallas in negative situations, so if the Cowboys can get Brees to give up the ball, New Orleans is very likely to lose.

My prediction: Saints 31, Cowboys 37.

As for the picks for the week, I am now back at even with two weeks left. Although today is the first day of winter, it’s time to get hot to ensure that I finish above .500 for the year. As always, the picks are in caps and bold.

LAST WEEK 9-7 (.563)
SEASON TOTAL 112-112 (.500)
THIS WEEK 0-0 (.000)

-4 ATLANTA at Detroit
Tennessee at GREEN BAY -12.5
+8.5 OAKLAND at Carolina
Buffalo at MIAMI -4.5
+3.5 CINCINNATI at Pittsburgh
-14.5 NEW ENGLAND at Jacksonville
-6.5 INDIANAPOLIS at Kansas City
New Orleans at DALLAS -3
Washington at PHILADELPHIA +6
St. Louis at TAMPA BAY -3
N.Y. Giants at BALTIMORE +2.5
+8.5 MINNESOTA at Houston
Cleveland at DENVER -13
-5.5 CHICAGO at Arizona
-1 SAN FRANCISCO at Seattle
+2.5 SAN DIEGO at N.Y. Jets