The data suggest that Fitzgerald will hit pay dirt against Dallas

This Sunday, the 7-4 Dallas Cowboys will face off against the 4-7 Arizona Cardinals in the desert. Both sides of the ball have various fantasy studs that are must starts in what is expected to become an aerial shoot-out. Here are my starts, sits and a sleeper pick for the big game.

Starts

Larry Fitzgerald – Arguably the best wide receiver in the game should be an every week starter for you. But you might have had some luck later in the draft or through the waiver wire with names like A.J. Green and Victor Cruz. So sitting Fitzgerald could be in the realm of possibility. But Fitz has scored three touchdowns in his last three games and it appears he’ll have Kevin Kolb back in the pocket. The Dallas defense will be focused in on stopping Beanie Wells and getting pressure on Kolb. I see a lot of throwing in this game and Fitzgerald stands to benefit due to his size. The Dallas corner backs have struggled against taller receivers all year.  Here are the numbers from opposing “big” receivers versus the Cowboys secondary in the last three weeks alone: Brandon Marshall (6’4) – 5 recs, 103 yards, 1 TD; Jabar Gaffney (6’2) – 7 recs, 115 yards, 1 TD; David Nelson (6’5) – 4 recs, 31 yards, 1 TD. Based on the data, Fitzgerald is pretty much guaranteed to score at least once with the possibility for more.  (more…)

This is a new weekly special we’re starting up here at TLH. I’ll be giving you my spin on possible match-ups that you can exploit to look like a genius and spank co-workers, family and friends in fantasy football. That being said, the NFL is an unpredictable league. Who could’ve known that Eddie Royal would’ve blown up in the first two weeks of this season? I had him starting in week 1, but that was luck. Who knew he’d be the number 5 receiver (3 spots ahead of Brandon Marshall) after two weeks? Nobody did. That being said, take these picks with a grain of salt. I make my picks based on the match-ups I see. I can’t say that enough. Do your homework and it’ll pay off. Or just let me do it for you.

Cowboys’ Marion Barber: Start ‘em.
The Green Bay defense is tough especially in the secondary, but Barber should put up his usual numbers. The Packers have to respect Tony Romo’s ability to find Terrell Owens and Jason Witten deep, so that should open up running room for Barber and some space underneath for Romo to find Barber as a check-down receiver. Barber has a nose for the end zone, and should put up his normal 20-25 points. If you still don’t like Barber’s match-up against the Packers, there aren’t many other options for fantasy owners. Another viable option for fantasy owners is Darren Sproles, owned in 71% of ESPN fantasy leagues.

Cowboys D/ST: Sit ‘em.
I don’t think this is a huge surprise for fantasy owners. Aaron Rogers has looked good as Brett Favre’s heir in Green Bay, and after giving up 37 points to Philly, I don’t have a lot of confidence in the Dallas defense to put up good fantasy numbers. I think there’s a better option out there for fantasy owners. That option is the Falcons defense against Kansas City. It’s not that I have great confidence in the Falcons defense, I just think that Kansas City’s offense will continue to have problems. A new quarterback and an underperforming running back will create a good match-up for the Falcons. Only 8.7% of ESPN’s fantasy leagues have an owner with the Falcons defense, so my advice to you is make that move if you have the Cowboys D/ST or any other bad match-up at that position.

QB’s
Start ‘em-Jay Cutler: A soft New Orleans secondary means a big fantasy day for the former Vandy man. The kid has a 118.6 passer rating. He’s starting in 67.8% of ESPN fantasy leagues, and he should be starting for everybody that owns him.

Sit ‘em-Carson Palmer: The Bengals are an abortion of a team right now. Even though the Giants have lost Osi Umeniyora and Michael Strahan to injury and retirement respectively, Justin Tuck is a monster and the Giants will still be able to get pressure on Palmer because the Bengals offensive line offers Palmer about as much protection as a Saran wrap condom.

RB’s
Start ‘em-Chris Johnson: He’s the fastest kid alive. TLH has informed me that Johnson is over-hyped, but I beg to differ. He’s ranked #11 for fantasy running backs, the second rookie on the list behind Matt Forte. The Titans will run the ball early and often to keep Mario Williams from pinning his ears back and rushing Kerry Collins. Expect a solid showing from Johnson.

Sit ‘em-Joseph Addai: Although he’s one of my favorite backs in the NFL, Addai is feeling the Colts’ offensive line woes as bad as anyone. Add that to a Jaguars defense that is allowing only 3.7 yards per carry this year, and that’s a bad match-up if I see it.

WR’s
Start ‘em-Eddie Royal: The Virginia Tech product has been the fantasy football surprise of this young NFL season. With Brandon Marshall and Tony Scheffler, the #2 tight end in fantasy point standings right now, Royal gets a lot of open looks. Look for Royal to continue putting up good fantasy numbers through this year.

Sit ‘em-Braylon Edwards: He’s listed as questionable against the Ravens, who still have one of the best defenses in the NFL. He has been disappointing for fantasy owners this year, and he won’t break his early season slump this week.

SLEEPERS:
In this part of my predictions, I’m going to go out on a limb with people that aren’t widely owned in fantasy leagues (I use ESPN for my fantasy football action, so that’s where I’m getting my numbers). If you have somebody hurt, these guys could fill in well for a week or two, but I wouldn’t rely on them for the whole season. I’m going with a Ravens-themed sleeper selection this week with Joe  Flacco, Ray Rice and Mark Clayton. I like anybody against the Cleveland defense. Royal is emerging as one of Trent Edwards’ favorite targets, and the Panthers look good against the Vikings with a new QB and AP with a hamstring tweak.

QB Joe Flacco (17.2% owned)
RB Ray Rice (58.2% owned)
WR Mark Clayton (18.7% owned)
TE Robert Royal (34.8% owned)
D/ST Panthers (22.2% owned)

If you have any questions, shoot me an e-mail at thembiiieffect@gmail.com . I’ll be glad to answer any questions you have.