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Mandatory Credit: Jason O. Watson-US PRESSWIRE

There are still a lot of unanswered questions about both the 2012 version of the Cowboys and their regular season opponents.  And, other than a handful of proven elite QBs, it is difficult to predict how a player will play in the future simply upon the prior year’s stats.  But, I thought it would be interesting to take a look at the QBRs for the quarterbacks that the Cowboys will face this coming season.

First of all, for comparison sake let’s note that Tony Romo had a rating of 102.5 in 2012 making him the 4th best QB in the league based simply on QBR (behind the usual suspects – Rodgers, Brees, and Brady).  These 4 quarterbacks were the only ones that finished the regular season with a rating above 100.  Although Tony made some bad plays at very bad times, Cowboy fans should not lose sight of the fact that we have a very talented quarterback who should be hitting his prime.

So, here are the 5 best QBs the Cowboys will face in 2012 in descending order based on last year’s QB rating:

1.  Drew Brees, Saints - 2012 rating: 110.2.  Brees had a record setting year in 2012 amassing almost 5,500 yards passing, completing 71 percent of his passes, and scoring 46 touchdowns.  Despite all that, his passer rating was only eight points higher than Romo.  But, that was last year.  Right now, he is mired in a bitter contract dispute and his team is reeling from “Bounty Gate”.  The Cowboys won’t see Brees until December 23rd – the Saints are talented but all the upheaval does not bode well for them in 2012.  It’s likely we catch them after they are already eliminated from the playoffs or resting for the playoffs if they are somehow able to overcome all the adversity.

2.  Eli Manning, Giants - 2012 rating: 92.9.  Giants fans would say, “so what” about Super Bowl XLVI’s MVP having a lower overall rating than Romo and they’d be right.  I’d rather have the ring and so would Tony.  But, it does demonstrate that it wasn’t necessarily Eli’s consistency or dominance that brought home the Lombardi trophy.  He has however developed an uncanny nack to come through in the clutch.  That is something Romo would be wise to try and emulate.  We face Eli twice of course – opening night on the road and then October 28th at home.  I can’t wait to see if our secondary helps our pass rush or our pass rush helps our improved secondary, but not even miracle Eli will be able to pull out the game lying under a pile of Cowboys pass rushers.

3.  Matt Ryan, Falcons - 2012 rating: 92.2. With New Orleans’ troubles, many see a window of opportunity for the Falcons this season and Matt Ryan will be at the center of it.  With Roddy White, Julio Jones, and the ageless Tony Gonzalez to throw to, Ryan is poised to have a good season.  But, similar to Romo Ryan has not been able to deliver playoff wins in his 4 seasons.  The Cowboys have to travel to Atlanta on November 4th in the midst of a brutal stretch of the season playing 4 of 5 games away from Cowboys Stadium.  Ryan is good at home in the dome – the Cowboys new secondary will be tested.

Mandatory Credit: Jim O

4.  Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers - 2012 Rating: 90.1.  The Steelers are always a tough team to beat – especially historically for the Cowboys.  But, they seem to be aging a bit and are facing a very disgruntled #1 receiver, Mike Wallace, who is not happy about how the Steelers have handled his contract situation this off season.  At least the Cowboys get this game – part of the brutal December finish – at home.  Big Ben is never spectacular but always seems to do just enough to pull out a win here and there.  I don’t expect the Cowboys to give him a chance to do that despite the date on the calendar.

5.  Jay Cutler, Bears - 2012 rating: 85.7.  There has been a lot of talk about the Bears this off season being a much improved team.  Granted, they have some weapons – assuming they get Matt Forte back in the fold.  They also traded for Brandon Marshall and drafted Alshon Jeffery, at one point a highly touted receiver prospect before falling a bit in the draft.  The defense will be stout and they help create turnovers and short fields for Cutler and the offense, but despite the fact that I like Cutlers’ “take no prisoners” attitude at times, I don’t see him in the same tier as Romo.  They catch the Cowboys on a Monday night the week before their bye though – which is early in the season before we or the team may have forged an identity yet.  Let’s hope both teams come in undefeated and the Cowboys emerge with a hard fought win as they head into their bye week to rest and heal.

Of course, I haven’t even talked about Robert Griffin III or the likely starter in Cleveland, Brandon Weeden because this ranking was based on last year’s stats.  Both are talented but I would caution people’s expectations to not be extraordinarily high for rookie quarterbacks.  What Cam Newton did was really rare.  The Cowboys also will likely see Matt Flynn with Seattle in the second game.  He had a passer rating of 124.8 but that was almost entirely based on a single game against the Lions.  He’ll have to not only win the starting job in Seattle – not at all assured based on how he has reportedly performed in OTA’s and minicamp so far - but also prove he can consistently perform at a high level.

It was suprising to see where some of the “hot” names from last year actually ranked – Andy Dalton, 80.4, Michael Vick, 84.9, Joe Flacco, 80.9, and Cam Newton, 84.5.  The Cowboys will face all of these guys – Vick and RGIII twice.  Any one of these players can have a good game and play above his rating, but it was certainly eye opening to me to see just where Romo’s season ranked last year among all QBs.  It’s an old cliche to say “it is a game of inches” but cliches exist because they are often true.  Romo had a very solid season and had he gotten just a few breaks, the story of 2011 might have had a happier ending.  Let’s hope the defense can dominate or at least contain these 5 quarterbacks as well as the signal callers on all their opposing teams.  If not, it won’t matter what Romo’s rating is at the end of the day.  Go Cowboys!

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Side note: I am categorically opposed to the “snake draft”.  But, that is the subject of an entirely different (and longer) article.

For the record, I won our family league last year – convincingly.  And, I ultimately helped manage the team that eventually won my work league when my own team was upset in the playoffs (any defeat of my team is an upset).  But, the only Cowboys player I had on either my family or work teams was DeMarco Murray and when he went down and out with his season-ending ankle injury late in the season, it was almost my undoing.  But, I overcame adversity just like the Cowboys will likely have to do this season.

So, I thought I would take a look at who the fantasy studs will be for the Cowboys this coming season based on the “experts”.  (Please do not ever call me a fantasy expert as in my opinion that is a little like publicly admitting you have no life).  Based on the NFL.com team of “experts” (sorry guys but congratulations on turning your obsession into some kind of a paying gig), here is where the Cowboys players rank at this stage of the preseason (for the complete list of rankings click here):

1.  QB – Tony Romo:  From a high of #3 by Dave Dameshek to a low of #9 by Jason Smith.  Very respectable numbers although I’m hoping Dameshek is closer to right.  The “elite 3″ are Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady typically with a slew of 2nd tier QBs well below them which is where Romo often falls.  He is the highest ranking QB in the NFC East.  But, QBs earn points for passing yards and TD passes primarily – not wins.  Tony has typically had very respectable numbers but doesn’t always deliver the “W”.  I would love to see him light it up like the elites, but Jason Garrett is all about offensive balance.  That means the Cowboys will try to run the ball about half the time.  That typically spells lower than “elite” fantasy numbers.  I don’t care if instead it generates wins.  Being a Cowboys fan, I would gladly finish last in every fantasy league if it meant a return to glory for the ‘Boys.

2.  RB – DeMarco Murray: A little surprising here to see Murray ranked at #10 already (high of #9, low of #13).  He had a very promising rookie season cut short by injury and I truly think that if he stays healthy (and Vickers and the offensive line stays healthy), he has the talent to lead the league in rushing.  But, he still has a lot to prove in his sophomore season and the same balance that dooms Romo to being in the 2nd tier of players likely keeps Murray there as well.  However, if he becomes the red-zone first choice, he can pick up a ton of fantasy points with short TD runs.  Would love to see that happen!

3.  WR – Dez Bryant/Miles Austin: There’s been a lot of discussion so far this offseason about who the real #1 receiver will be in Dallas in 2012.  Ironically, the Cowboys talented duo are ranked numbers 18 and 19 with Miles being ranked slightly higher.  Based on historical numbers, Miles is still the #1 but both players have a lot to prove in 2012 after injury plagued seasons last year.  If healthy, they are a dynamic tandem that keep defensive backs up at night.  But, far too often last year, defenses kept them in check enough that a 3rd option – Laurent Robinson – became the open man in the red zone and capitalized with 11 touchdowns (Robinson was a fantasy steal last year as well as in the real NFL).  At their equal best, these two will split the production of a clear #1 like a Calvin Johnson in Detroit.  That will always leave them lacking in fantasy points.

5.  K – Dan Bailey: Another bit of a surprise here as Bailey is ranked as the 4th best kicker overall – as high as #2 by Jason Smith.  No question, he had an outstanding rookie season, won the kicking job outright, and made an inconsistent David Buehler expendable.  The Cowboys offense will score points and the PATs will help pad his fantasy points, but here is one fan hoping that he rarely gets to kick a field goal as a result of our red zone execution being flawless!  Regardless of where he ranks in fantasy, we now know we have a kicker that can deliver when called upon.

6.  Defense: No surprise after a very weak 2011 that the Dallas defense ranks pretty low at #16 overall – behind both the Giants and the Eagles.  But no question they’ve revamped their weakest point (secondary) and should be a much improved unit.  You get big fantasy points for turnovers – interceptions and fumbles – and that is where the Cowboys have been almost invisible.  That has to improve.  I for one would have no problem taking the Cowboys D as my starting defense.  Dave Dameshek again seems to be factoring in all the changes as he ranked the Cowboys #5 overall, but the rest of the panel had them at 16 or lower.  I can’t wait to see what a full off season, a completely new secondary, and Sean Lee with another season under his belt and assuming a leadership role do for this squad.  They could be very, very good if things gel as we hope.

The Cowboys are talented at a lot of positions – they don’t have the Rob Gronkowskis, Calvin Johnsons, or Maurice Jones Drew type players that tend to have multiple games where they are the primary target and score points in waves.  That’s a good thing for the team but a bad recipe for fantasy football – and for  opposing defenses trying to decide what to take away.  Give me a 10 or 11 win season and a Super Bowl run and let the fantasy points fall where they may.  (I rarely get the Cowboys players I would like to have any way in fantasy – which creates some potential conflicts of interest when my opponent does have them.  I always want the Cowboys to win, but throw the ball to the other guy that my opponent doesn’t have! Or, run the ball in if they have Romo!).

It’s going to be a great season in both real football and in fantasy.  We’ve never had a repeat winner in our leagues – this could be the year.  I feel it!  Go Cowboys!