The 1st pick in the draft is payed a ridiculous sum of money despite having no experience in the NFL. With the new collective bargaining agreement expected to be revised, there may be a revision to how rookies are paid. Some have stated that the NFL may adopt a slotting system like the NBA and/or the players may only sign three year deals limiting the amount of guaranteed money that will be doled out. Looking at Sam Bradford‘s contract, the top pick in the 2010 draft, he would have signed a 3 year deal worth 30 million with 25 million guaranteed rather than the 6 year 78 million dollar deal with 50 million in guaranteed money he did sign . Essentially all the “monopoly” money at the back of the deal would simply be eliminated along with the very real guaranteed money.

Either way, the systems appears to be changing for the better. Consequently, teams will not be as reluctant to trade up to the top pick. There will be some talented players in the 2011 draft, but is there a player who can draw enough attention (e.g. Eli Manning) that teams are falling over themselves to trade up?  While some positions are drafted in the top five (left tackle, quarterback, running back, cornerback, etc.), we can eliminate most positions from consideration, other than quarterback, because teams do not mortgage their future for a cornerback or tackle.

As for the Cowboys, why wouldn’t they use the top pick on a player they need?  Following Bill Parcells‘s example, he drafted Jake Long at the top of the first round.  Well, the presumption is that the Cowboys seriously need offensive line help, and as bad luck would have it, there aren’t many high first round grades out there for tackles.  At the very least, not tackles that are graded in the top 5.  So the Cowboys could find value in trading down and taking an offensive lineman in the middle of the round, rather than overpaying a player that is not commensurately talented as his draft position would suggest.  Let’s not relive the Quincy Carter experience.  Carter was projected as a 6th round pick, and he played like a 6th round pick in his first few years.  Simply because he was drafted higher than he should have been, did not make him a better player than he was.

According to Andrew Perloff of Sports Illustrated, Ryan Mallette of Arkansas, Blain Gabbert of Missouri, Jake Locker of Washington, and Christian Ponder of Florida State,  all had first round potential before the start of the 2010 season.  A resource that is frequently updated is CBS Sports prospect tracker suggests that only Locker is a top prospect.  This helps to fan the fire which may lead to a team trading up.  If there is a definitive top QB prospect, anything less than him would be a reach… well, until he finally starts to play.

So we have our golden boy prospect, we have a construct where trading up to the top of the first round isn’t prohibitive, and now all we need are some dance partners.  What we need to find are teams that are competitive that need a final piece to the puzzle and are willing to wait one year for the quarterback to develop or a team where the general manager and coach are one bad season away from being fired and they hope that drafting a quarterback will give them a new lease on life.

The Carolina Panthers, Buffalo Bills, San Francisco 49ers, Minnesota Vikings, Arizona Cardinals, or Washington Redskins.  It is possible the Seattle Seahawks also are looking to solidify their long-term solution at quarterback (though they did trade for Charlie Whitehurst last off-season) and you never know what the Oakland Raiders are planning.

It only takes one team who is willing to trade, but it does take two teams to create a bidding war.  Out of the above teams, only the Cowboys have a legitimate answer at quarterback.  It could be said that the Cowboys should trade Tony Romo, take Locker, and use the picks received on the Romo trade to rebuild the offensive line.  That is probably the smartest situation… IF Locker pans out.  Despite the recent moderate success of Bradford, Stafford, Sanchez, Ryan, and Flacco, the odds of drafting a quarterback who will succeed in the league is still a 33% bet at best.  Let’s not forget the lessons learned from players like (only considering the top 2 rounds) Pat White, Brian Brohm, JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, John Beck, Drew Stanton, Matt Leinert, Jay Cutler (yes, I am throwing him in with this group), Kellen Clemens, Alex Smith, Jason Campbell, JP Losman, Byron Leftwich, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman, Dave Carr, Joey Harrington, and Patrick Ramsey.

Draft season comes early for the Cowboys this year.  November rather than January.  For those who love the draft, the speculation, and promise that rookies bring, this may be the lone bright spot worth holding onto.

The NFL is the ultimate meritocracy.  You draft well, you sign good players in free agency, and you will compete for a playoff spot.  If you draft poorly (Detroit), and throw good money after bad players (Washington), you will wallow in mediocrity.

AFC EAST:

Previous division winner: New England Patriots

2010 division winner: New England Patriots: The Bills are too far away.  The Jets have a good defense and questions on offense.  They are overrated and over-hyped.  Miami will play tough football, but they are missing key pieces on both sides of the ball.  They may run a similar scheme as the Cowboys, but they lack a Romo, a Witten, and a Ware.

The Patriots are back to being boring.  The offense has been so dynamic the last few years, that it is no longer a story for the mainstream media.  The defense is near to completing their youth movement (partly due to all the veterans getting traded, cut, or injured), and there are few better game day coaches than Bill Belicheck.

AFC North

Previous Division Winner: Cincinnati Bengals

2010 division winner: Ravens:  The Browns defense was adequate last year.  Delhomme may be a better option than Quinn and Anderson, but not by much.  Whether Mangini can be a good head coach still remains to be seen.  The Steelers will have Polomalu roaming deep centerfield and they will make the playoffs, but starting 2-2 with one of the losses being to the Ravens will put them in a severe disadvantage.  As for the Bengals, I don’t see the offense imploding because of Terrell Owens.  I simply doubt the Bengals are good enough to repeat as division champions in one of the better divisions in football.

As for the Ravens, they are young at key positions on offense, QB, RB, and WR; they also have a surplus of talent at the offensive line.  Their defense has been perpetually old for the past 5 years.  Every year it is expected that Ray Lewis and Co. will hit the wall and the team will implode.  Every year I’m wrong so why should I finally be right in 2010?

AFC South

Previous Division Winner: Indianapolis Colts

2010 division winner: Texans:  This is based on one caveat.  If the Texans win against the Colts in week one, I expect the Texans to win the division.  If the Colts win, I predict the Titans to win the division.  The Colts will be formidable and will make the playoffs; however, there are two components to losing a Super Bowl.  The first is the disappointment that the players feel about losing and the amount of time it takes for them to get past that; the second is the fact that the players have to play 3 more physical games.  The first is emotional trauma that no other team has to suffer; the second is a physical trauma that most other players in the league are not subject to.

As for the Titans, they are a capable team.  Chris Johnson has his sights set on 2,500 yards.  I’m not sure he exceeds 1,300.  Historically, running backs who broke 2,000 yards do not come close to repeating their performance.  Consequently, if Johnson isn’t as dynamic, there is little chance that Vince Young will pick up the slack.  I believe the Titans will finish near 8-8, but they will miss the playoffs.  The Jaguars don’t merit discussion.  Jack Del Rio will be looking for work next year; he is a victim of mediocre QB play.  Leftwich and Garrard did not pan out and Del Rio will join a long list of defensive minded coaches whose teams underperformed because of sub-par offenses.

AFC West

Previous Division Winner: San Diego Chargers

Raiders:  There is no reason for the Chargers not to repeat as division winners.  While the Chargers may have still have two prominent holdouts, they are a deep team and can replace the players without missing a beat.  The Broncos fell apart late last season due to injuries, the Chiefs are still rebuilding around a quarterback who did a good Tom Brady impersonation for one season. Thomas Jones still has gas in the tank and the Chiefs won’t be the pushover they were the year before.  The fact of the matter is the only safe bet in the AFC West are the Chargers, which is why I’m picking the Raiders.  The Raiders are the most talented bad team in the NFL and there is always a team that comes from the bottom of the barrel to surprise the league.  On the other hand, it wouldn’t be surprising if Al Davis fires Tom Cable in the 2nd week of the season and cuts Jason Campbell in week four.  Barring the complete unexpected, pencil in the Raiders as your surprise team for 2010.

Tomorrow I’ll cover the NFC.  After week 8 when both the Raiders and Texans are 2-5, I’m sure I’ll look foolish.

The Vikings return to their 2008 version with Tavaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels manning the helm.  Brad Childress, the head coach and play caller for the Vikings, was notoriously conservative prior to Favre’s arrival.  According to Trent Dilfer of ESPN, there are valid concerns that the offensive style may regress not only because of who plays quarterback, but because Favre isn’t there to push Childress in a less conservative direction.

The Vikings are not a defenseless team.  They have one of the best running backs in the game, a veteran offensive laden with talent, break away wide receivers, and a run stuffing defense.  While on paper they are worse today than they were last year, they are a capable team of beating any team in the league.

With respect to Favre’s replacement, it is not too late in the pre-season to search for another competitor.  The Cowboys have a capable backup in Jon Kitna who could compete with Jackson and Rosenfels.  The Cowboys do not have enough faith in Stephen McGee to even consider parting with Kitna.  However, Jeff Garcia, Rex Grossman, or possibly Brady Quinn could be available via trade if the Vikings were desperate.  The question that may haunt the Vikings organization is whether they would have been willing to trade for McNabb several months back.

The Vikings danced with the devil they knew, and not surprisingly they were burned in the process.