The top needs on the Dallas Cowboys are Offensive Line, Safety, and Defensive Line (in that order). All three of those groups are fairly deep in the top 100 players of this year’s draft. If the Cowboys play their cards right they could get 3 starters out of this year’s crop. So if the draft is so deep, why would they trade back?

Because it’s possible the players worthy of a mid-first round pick will be gone by pick #18. And of course it’s Jerry Jones and he loves doing stuff like this.

Top offensive linemen like OT’s Joekel, Fisher, and Johnson will be long gone. DT’s Floyd, Lotulelei and Richardson will probably be gone too. Some are projecting top pass rushers like Werner or Mingo may drop, but pass-rushers always go early so what really are the chances of that happening? Despite the local love, Vaccaro has mixed reviews and may not be the best match at safety for Monte Kiffin’s defense (especially since Kiffin said here , he’s playing a ton of Single High Safety instead of just Cover 2). It’s perfectly reasonable to assume all of these players will be gone by the time #18 gets a turn.

In the middle of the first round the Cowboys will probably be looking at a combination of OT DJ Fluker, OG Chance Warmack and/or OG Jonathan Cooper.

Nov 10, 2012; Chapel Hill, NC, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels guard Jonathan Cooper (64) on the field in the first half at Kenan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Watch the film and you will see Fluker struggled enough against speed rushers that he may be too slow for even RT in the NFL. Yes, he’s a big strong road grader, but if he’s not athletic enough, then what good is all of that strength? Warmack is similarly strong and rated by most as the best OG in the draft. But he also has drawbacks. First, Warmack could be picked earlier than #18 (as you see below, I project him to go to by #11). Second, he may not be the best fit for Bill Callahan’s blocking scheme. This leaves Jonathan Copper, the athletic guard from North Carolina. He’s a great fit but even he may be gone. Then what?

The Cowboys devoted a suspicious amount of scouting efforts on players projecting in the 20-40 range. This is an area mostly between the Cowboy’s first and second round picks. Dynamic DT’s Sylvester Williams and Kawann Short are expected to fall in this range. Wisconsin center Fredrick, Kentucky guard Warford will be there too. Ball-hawking safety Eric Reid is even in this gap. Trading back from #18, the Cowboys could theoretically acquire 1 or 2 extra picks in the top 100. If used correctly they could net 4 to 5 starters from the top of this draft. It may not be the smart move, but you can bet Jerry Jones is at Valley Ranch scheming a way for extra picks. If Cooper is gone at #18 too– He may just have to.

NOTE: Like most Mock Drafts this does not project actual trades. While I only have one QB going in the first round here, I fully expect 2 teams to trade into the back half of the round looking for signal callers.

 1. Kansas City Chiefs – Luke Joeckel, Offensive Tackle, Texas A&M: With Alex Smith signed KC is no longer tempted to reach for Geno Smith. Alex Smith is one of the worst rated QB’s in the league when under pressure. Luke will provide an upgrade over Branden Albert on the left side.

Other Possibilities: OT Fisher, DT Floyd

 2. Jacksonville Jaguars – Dion Jordan, Outside Linebacker, Oregon: Star Lotulelei’s unknown heart condition really impacts Gus Bradley’s first draft with the Jags. Luckily workout warrior, Dion Jordon, fits the all-important LEO position wonderfully and will be an excellent second choice.

Other Possibilities: DT Floyd, DT Lotulelei

3. Oakland Raiders – Sharif Floyd, Defensive Tackle, Florida: Perhaps no one has benefited more in the offseason than Sharif. He is a big-time talent who will provide youth and skill to the recently depleted Raiders defense.

Other Possibilities: DE Jordan, DT Lotulelei

4. Philadelphia Eagles – Geno Smith, Quarterback, West Virginia: Possibly the most difficult team to mock, Philadelphia has many needs but none of them are glaring enough to make the selection obvious. The safe pick for Philly is to go with OT Fisher but I believe Philly really does like Geno and is trying to keep their interest on the down-low so they can trade back to a team like Detroit, San Deigo, Arizona, or Miami who are all looking for a LT. Philly could trade down with anyone of them, acquire extra pick(s), and still get Geno.

Other Possibilities: OT Fisher, CB Milliner

5. Detroit Lions – Eric Fisher, Offensive Tackle, Central Michigan: With the signing of Chris Houston the need for a CB like Dee Milliner has diminished. The Lions have needs at OT more than anything and if Philly passes on Fisher Detroit will not think twice to draft him.

Other Possibilities: DE Ansah, CB Milliner

6.  Cleveland Browns – Dee Milliner, Cornerback, Alabama: Cleveland has two major needs: an outside pass-rusher to pair with Paul Kruger and CB to anchor the secondary. Pass rushers like Mingo and Werner will be tempting but with Milliner still on the board Cleveland will have no choice.

Other Possibilities: DE Werner, DE Mingo

  7. Arizona Cardinals – Lane Johnson, Offensive Tackle, Oklahoma: Carson Palmer kept Arizona from doing something stupid like draft a QB waaaay too early. Instead the Cards can address a real need at OT. Much to the dismay of San Diego (which in German means “a whale’s ….”err…nevermind).

Other Possibilities: OG Chance Warmack, DE Ansah

8.  Buffalo Bills – Ezekiel Ansah, DE/OLB, BYU: If Philly takes QB Geno Smith the Bills will look to the pass-rush. Many pass rushers are available so look for many possible trades between picks 5-10. QB and O-line also need to be addressed so it’s possible Buffalo may trade back and then back up to maximize picks in the top rounds.

Other Possibilities: QB Smith, DE Mingo

9. New York Jets – Jarvis Jones, Outside Linebacker, Georgia: Physical and character issues can only allow a pass rusher to drop so far. The Jets will begin the rebuild with high risk/high reward player like Jones.

Other Possibilities: DT Lotulelei, DE Ansah, S Vaccaro

10.  Tennessee Titans –Star Lotulelei, Defensive Tackle, Utah: Chance Warmack will be tempting but Star Lotulelei will be too good to pass up. It has been reported that Star has been cleared of previous health concerns regarding the combine-reported heart condition. Only the individual teams know the specifics so Star could really fall farther depending on what specific team doctors feel. It’s worth noting, talent alone places Star in the top 3 of this draft.

Other Possibilities: OG Warmack, OG Cooper

Apr 26, 2012; New York, NY, USA; A general view of the NFL shield logo before the 2012 NFL Draft at Radio City Music Hall. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

With no further ado, here is our first, first round NFL mock draft of the year:

NOTE: This is as accurate a draft order as possible. Currently, the top 28 spots are set. The remaining picks will be determined as team’s are eliminated from the playoffs.

NOTE: This is a Mock Draft so trades are not projected because it is too hard to predict what teams are willing to give up to get a prospect, or what a team is willing to accept to move out of their initial spot.

1. Kansas City Chiefs – Luke Joeckel – OT – Texas A&M
The Chiefs are in dire need of a quarterback, but there just is not a quarterback available to draft with the first overall pick. When in need of a quarterback the next best thing is to get a Left Tackle to protect the blindside for years to come. Joeckel is the best lineman in the Draft and he has the footwork and power to translate to the NFL.

Other Possibilities: Geno Smith – QB – West Virginia, Star Lotuelei – DT – Utah, Damontre Moore – DE – Texas A&M

 2. Jacksonville Jaguars – Star Lotulelei, Defensive Tackle, Utah
The Jaguars are in need of so many things it is ridiculous to even think about what they will do with the second pick. If you think back to the days of Mark Brunell and the glory of the Jaguars, you will notice one thing stands out. Defensive line play. They need a strong defensive line and that starts in the middle. Lotulelei has been compared to Ndamakong Suh when he came out of Nebraska, so if he reaches that kind of potential he could be a good piece to build around in Jacksonville.

Other Possibilities: Jarvis Jones – OLB – Georgia, Damontre Moore – DE – Texas A&M

3. Oakland Raiders – Jarvis Jones – OLB - Georgia 

Jarvis Jones has been number one on the board for most of the college season. He is a freakish athlete that can play all three linebacker positions. He can play straight outside line backer, he can slide inside and play in the middle, and he can also put his hand in the ground and rush the passer. His versatility makes him a huge option for the Raiders. Oakland got rid of their first round pick from two years ago, Rolando McClain late in the 2012 season, so they have a huge opening at the LB position.

Other Possibilities: Damontre Moore – DE – Texas A&M, Manti Te’o – MLB – Notre Dame

4. Philadelphia Eagles – Damontre Moore – DE – Texas A&M

The Eagles are happy with their DE Trent Cole and Brandon Graham, but if there is one thing we have learned from the New York Giants, you can never have too many elite pass rushers. The Giants drafted Jason Pierre Paul when it was not a need position and the fellow NFC East foe would be smart to do the same here. The Eagles released Jason Babin so they need another guy that can rotate at DE and Moore is the best pure pass rusher in the Draft. He can be a great player that can learn from Cole and eventually be a great tandem with Graham in the future.

Other possibilities: Dee Milliner – CB – Alabama, Manti Te’o – MLB – Notre Dame,

5. Detroit Lions – Dee Milliner – CB – Alabama
The Lions defensive backs are a mess. They need serious help at both cornerback and safety. Notre Dame provided the blue print for Milliner to rise up the draft board in the championship game. Every time Notre Dame tried to test Milliner he passed with flying colors. Milliner is the best shut down corner in the draft.

Other Possibilities: Barkevious Mingo – DE/OLB – LSU, Manti Te’o – MLB – Notre Dame, Bjoern Werner – DE – Florida State

6.  Cleveland Browns – Bjoern Werner, Defensive End, Florida State
Cleveland is one of the youngest teams in the league and they were a team that got better as the year went on. They lost many close games, but had many chances to beat the teams on their schedule. They need a major overhaul of the defensive line, they have a former first round pick in Joe Haden in their secondary and D’Qwell Jackson is a stud at middle linebacker. Now is a time to get a significant pass rusher to go along with the other two stud defensive players. Werner is a foreign born player so he is raw with skills, but full of abilities. The Browns can mold him into whatever they need based on the philosophy of their head coach. He can be a rush end in a 4-3 or be a stand up OLB in a 3-4 style defense.

Other Possibilities: Barkevious Mingo – DE/OLB – LSU, Johnathan Hankins – DT – Ohio State

7. Arizona Cardinals – Chance Warmack – G – Alabama
The Cardinals have a major need at QB, but just like the Chiefs there is not a reason to take a quarterback this high in this draft class. That being said, the best thing is to get an offensive line to protect whoever is taking snaps next season. Warmack is the best lineman from the best offensive line not only this season but in the history of college football. He is a large body and moves very well for his massive size. He is the perfect guy to build the new Cardinals offensive line around and will be a foundation for the offense for years to come.

Other Possibilities: Geno Smith – QB – West Virginia, Eric Fisher – OT – Central Michigan, Lane Johnson – OT – Oklahoma

8.  Buffalo Bills – Manti T’eo, Linebacker, Notre Dame
The Bills are another team stuck with the conundrum of drafting a need at quarterback, even though there is not one worthy of this high pick. The Bills are in need of a leader on defense and there is no better leader in the entire draft than that of Manti Te’o. He fits a need for the Bills at Linebacker and gives them the leader they so desperately need. Sad to know that a rookie can come in and be the best leader on the team, but that’s the state of affairs in Buffalo.

Other Possibilities: Geno Smith – QB – West Virginia, Keenan Allen – WR – California, Eric Fisher – OT – Central Michigan

9. New York Jets – Kenny Vaccaro, Safety, Texas
The Jets are in a state of disarray in the front office. They need to figure out a consensus direction. They have too much money tied up in Mark Sanchez to move him at this juncture. They have limited cap space to re-sign their pro bowl safety LaRon Landry, so they will need to find a replacement. Vaccaro is a good tackler and is a very good cover guy. He will be a nice replacement for Landry in the jets secondary and with Darrelle Revis returning and Antonio Cromartie stepping up this year, the Jets will have a formidable secondary if they get a safety in the draft.

Other Possibilities: Barkevious Mingo – DE/OLB – LSU, Eric Fisher – OT – Central Michigan

10.  Tennessee Titans – Barkevious Mingo – DE/OLB - LSU
The Titans have not had an elite pass rusher since the first go around of Javon Kearse. They have speed on defense, but they need someone who can do both rush the passer and stop the run. Mingo is the perfect fit for Tennessee. He can play both with his hand in the ground and standing up. he can rush the passer just as well as he can play the run. He will need to show athleticism and skills at the combine, but if he passes, he will be a big pick up for a Tennessee defense in need of play makers.
Other Possibilities: Johnathan Hankins – OT – Ohio State, Sheldon Richardson – OT – Missouri