Dallas Cowboys: Realistic Expectation of Ezekiel Elliott

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May 6, 2016; Irving, TX, USA; Dallas Cowboys number one draft pick Ezekiel Elliott (21) during rookie minicamp at Dallas Cowboys headquarters at Valley Ranch. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports /

How much production should the Dallas Cowboys reasonably expect to see from rookie running back Ezekiel Elliott?

With their highest draft pick since 1991, the Dallas Cowboys selected running back Ezekiel Elliott 4^th overall in the 2016 NFL Draft last month. They passed on Florida State defensive back Jalen Ramsey to do so. Surprising to some when you consider only the Baltimore Ravens had fewer interceptions than the Cowboys last year. Turnovers (or lack thereof) plagued the team; 2015 produced 20 fewer takeaways than the playoff team of 2014.

The talent and ability Zeke Elliott has is not up for debate. A true all-around talent who takes as much pride in blocking as he does with the ball in his hands. Nevertheless, the rookie will be under immense pressure to produce exceptional numbers. Not least because he’ll have the Star on his helmet.

To temper the extravagant 3,000 yard predictions, I wanted to look at what rookie running backs have produced in recent years.

First Round Rookies

The last five running backs to be drafted in the first round of the draft were:

Todd Gurley (LA Rams, 10^th overall 2015)
Melvin Gordon (San Diego Chargers, 15^th overall 2015)
Trent Richardson (Cleveland Browns, 3^rd overall 2012)
Doug Martin (Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 31^st overall 2012)
David Wilson (New York Giants, 32^nd overall 2012)

Their rookie seasons produced mixed results. Gurley and Martin are the only two to crack the 1,000-yard rushing mark as well as become Pro Bowlers. Gordon heads into his second NFL season still looking for his first touchdown. And Wilson, who is now retired, failed to get to a 1,000 yards combined in three years in a Giants’ uniform.

So for the Cowboys new #21, there’s no obvious pattern to follow. Based on the five runners above, you can expect an average production of: 901 yards and 8 touchdowns from Elliott in his rookie season. But they weren’t playing behind this Dallas Cowboys offensive line.

Next: Elliott Expectations - 1,000 Yard Rookies

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