Dallas Cowboys built a championship-caliber defense in 2015
The Dallas Cowboys defense could have won a Super Bowl this year if the offense was so monumentally awful.
If the Dallas Cowboys had this defense last year, they would have won the Super Bowl.
Yeah, I know, everyone hates this defense, and everyone was reminded why during Saturday’s 19-16 loss at home to the New York Jets.
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This defense can’t take the ball away, getting just its seventh interception of the season Saturday, and the first by a cornerback. Now the team’s cornerback position group as a whole has as many picks as defensive lineman Greg Hardy. Pathetic.
This defense can’t make a stop in the fourth quarter. With the game tied at 16 and under two minutes to play, the Jets converted a 43-yard pass play – the biggest yardage play of the night – to get to the Dallas 26-yard line and set up the game-winning field goal. The play before that was a 3rd-and-1 the Jets converted on a quarterback scramble.
Frustrating. Before that conversion Dallas had held New York to 4-of-12 on third down. That’s 33 percent. If the Jets always converted third downs at 33%, they’d be ranked 29th in the league. That’s anemic. But this defense can’t get off the field on third down when it counts.
And none of that matters. All of the reasons you hate this defense are misleading. This defense is good, but it’s not good enough to make up for four interceptions from the offense. It’s been that way all year. The offense gives the other team two bonus possessions every week (27 turnovers in 14 games), and the Cowboys have been outscored by an average of less than six points per game.
The defense gave up 19 points against the Jets. Tough guys reading this will say, “Yeah, but they didn’t get it done in the clutch. They didn’t do enough to win.” I want my coaching staff and players thinking that way (and these Cowboys do), but you fans aren’t accomplishing anything with that mindset. Quite the opposite. You’re willfully ignoring the obvious in a silly attempt to appear gritty.
The defense did enough to win (again) and the offense lost it (again). There isn’t anything wrong with this defense that isn’t solved by the offense protecting the ball.
Here is a graph of the worst teams in the league in terms of turnover differential. Notice no team in the league with a negative number has a winning record.
| Net Turnovers | Win Pct | Def PPG Rank | |
| TAM | -1 | 0.429 | 21 |
| HOU | -1 | 0.500 | 13 |
| CHI | -2 | 0.357 | 20 |
| NO | -2 | 0.385 | 32 |
| MIA | -3 | 0.357 | 26 |
| JAX | -5 | 0.357 | 30 |
| ATL | -6 | 0.500 | 14 |
| IND | -6 | 0.429 | 29 |
| CLE | -7 | 0.214 | 31 |
| SD | -7 | 0.286 | 19 |
| DET | -9 | 0.308 | 27 |
| TEN | -9 | 0.214 | 24 |
| BAL | -12 | 0.286 | 25 |
| DAL | -18 | 0.286 | 15 |
The Cowboys are the worst team in the league in turnover differential by more than 30 percent. And they’re ranked in the top half of the league in defensive points per game. That just seems impossible.
I don’t have the resources of ESPN, but anyone can look up stuff on Pro Football Reference. Here are the last 10 teams to finish worst in turnover differential, along with their defensive ranking in points per game:
| Year | Team | TO Diff | PPG Rank |
| 2015 | DAL | -1.3 | 15 |
| 2014 | OAK | -0.9 | 32 |
| 2013 | HOU | -1.2 | 25 |
| 2012 | KC | -1.5 | 25 |
| 2011 | TB | -1.0 | 32 |
| 2010 | BUF | -1.1 | 28 |
| 2009 | DET | -1.1 | 32 |
| 2008 | SF | -1.1 | 23 |
| 2007 | BAL | -1.1 | 22 |
| 2006 | OAK | -1.4 | 18 |
Dallas is the only team in the last decade to finish in the top half of the league in defensive points per game and worst in the league in turnover differential.
This defense is good. Good enough to win championships. But, right, right, they can’t take the ball away. They have only nine takeaways on the year, and are pacing to break the all-time record for fewest takeaways in a season.
And, again, the stoic types out there will say that’s the defense’s own fault, then pat themselves on the back for being so tough-minded.
If you’re a coach or a player, I laud that approach. If you’re a fan or an analyst, you’re denying reality. As an example, Buffalo leads the league in Fumbles Per Game with 1.8. They also lead the league in Fumbles Not Lost Per Game at 1.2. Buffalo fumbles more than any other team in the league, but recovers two for every one it loses.
So is Buffalo really good at the loose ball drill? Or are they really bad at protecting the ball, but just lucky? Fumbles are largely the province of Loki, the shape-shifting Norse god of mischief. Once the ball is out, only Loki knows what it’s going to do.
Interceptions are more a function of poor execution on offense than they are great defense. Scheming can help give defenses more opportunity for turnovers, but only marginally. It’s usually poor decision making on the part of the quarterback, more than anything else.
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A quarterback’s decisions can be impacted by pressure, but again not to any degree that makes a team go from worst to first in turnovers. The Cowboys were famous for not getting to the quarterback in 2014, and they finished second in the league with 31 takeaways. Explain that.
And there’s the point. You can’t explain this season, other than to say it’s all about injuries and turnovers. How do you get better at injuries and turnovers? You don’t blow up the roster and fire the coaching staff. You cross your fingers and try again next year.