Dallas Cowboys: Is Tony Romo The Clutchest Quarterback Ever?

The Dallas Cowboys start training camp in Oxnard, California in 20 days. Between now and then, we’re all waiting for word on defensive end Greg Hardy’s suspension and wondering whether receiver Dez Bryant will play the 2015 season under the franchise tag. Until something breaks, thank goodness for Pro Football Reference.

Today, we’ll look at how clutch quarterback Tony Romo has been during his career, in comparison to his contemporaries and some of the greats who’ve played the position.

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There are many ways to measure “clutch,” and none of them are definitive. Mostly it’s a perception, but there are some data points that can be useful in judging whether those perceptions may have merit, or whether the people who cling to those perceptions are probably delusional.

One such measurement is fourth quarter comebacks. Pro Football Reference defines these as games that featured “an offensive scoring drive in the fourth quarter, with the team trailing by one score… Only games ending in a win or tie are included.”

Tony Romo is ranked 14th all-time in fourth quarter comebacks with 24. Here is the Top 20 from Pro Football Reference:

Rank	Player	4QC
1	Peyton Manning	41
2	Dan Marino	36
3	John Elway	35
	Tom Brady	35
5	Joe Montana	31
6	Fran Tarkenton	30
	Brett Favre	30
8	Vinny Testaverde	29
9	Johnny Unitas	27
10	Warren Moon	26
	Eli Manning	26
12	Ben Roethlisberger	25
	Drew Brees	25
14	Tony Romo	24
	Dan Fouts	24
	Dave Krieg	24
	Drew Bledsoe	24
18	Jim Kelly	22
19	R. Cunningham	21
	Kerry Collins	21

An all-time ranking in the Top 15 is impressive, but you’ll note Romo is behind contemporaries such as Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger. All three were part of the 2004 rookie class, though Romo was an undrafted afterthought and his counterparts were first-round franchise centerpieces.

Still, Romo sat his first two years, started only 10 games his third season, and missed 10 games to injury in 2010. The players on this list may have amassed more comebacks than Romo, but they’ve also started many more games. So I pulled the “games started” data for each of these quarterbacks, and ranked them by the percentage of starts that resulted in a fourth quarter comeback.

The list looks a whole lot different:

Rank	Player	4QC	Starts	Rate
1	Tony Romo	24	123	19.5%
2	Joe Montana	31	164	18.9%
3	Tom Brady	35	207	16.9%
4	Peyton Manning	41	256	16.0%
5	B. Roethlisberger	25	158	15.8%
6	Eli Manning	26	167	15.6%
	R. Cunningham	21	135	15.6%
8	John Elway	35	231	15.2%
9	Dan Marino	36	240	15.0%
10	Johnny Unitas	27	185	14.6%
11	Dan Fouts	24	171	14.0%
12	Jim Kelly	22	160	13.8%
13	Dave Krieg	24	175	13.7%
14	Vinny Testaverde	29	214	13.6%
15	Warren Moon	26	203	12.8%
16	Fran Tarkenton	30	239	12.6%
17	Drew Brees	25	201	12.4%
	Drew Bledsoe	24	193	12.4%
19	Kerry Collins	21	180	11.7%
20	Brett Favre	30	298	10.1%

Romo delivers a fourth-quarter comeback about once every five starts. There are eight Hall of Famers on this list, and four others who are sure to get there, and they’re all staring up at Tony Romo.

Pro Football Reference keeps another stat called Game Winning Drives. These are defined as “led by quarterback. Must be an offensive scoring drive in the fourth quarter or overtime that puts the winning team ahead for the last time.”

These are the ones you remember. The very definition of clutch. Romo is ranked 18^th all-time in this category with 28 such drives. That’s more than Roger Staubach (23) or Troy Aikman (21). Here’s the Top 20 list from Pro Football Reference:

Rank	Player	GWD
1	Peyton Manning	52
2	Dan Marino	51
3	Tom Brady	46
	John Elway	46
5	Brett Favre	45
6	Warren Moon	37
7	Drew Brees	36
8	Ben Roethlisberger	35
9	Fran Tarkenton	34
10	Vinny Testaverde	33
	Joe Montana	33
12	Drew Bledsoe	31
	Eli Manning	31
14	Kerry Collins	30
	Jake Plummer	30
16	Jim Kelly	29
	Johnny Unitas	29
18	Tony Romo	28
19	Matt Ryan	27
	Brad Johnson	27
	Terry Bradshaw	27

When we factor in the number of starts to determine the rate at which quarterbacks provide us with these classic performances, the list again looks a lot different:

Rank	Player	GWD	Starts	Rate
1	Matt Ryan	27	110	24.5%
2	Tony Romo	28	123	22.8%
3	Tom Brady	46	207	22.2%
	B. Roethlisberger	35	158	22.2%
5	Jake Plummer	30	136	22.1%
6	Brad Johnson	27	125	21.6%
7	Dan Marino	51	240	21.3%
8	Peyton Manning	52	256	20.3%
9	Joe Montana	33	164	20.1%
10	John Elway	46	231	19.9%
11	Eli Manning	31	167	18.6%
12	Warren Moon	37	203	18.2%
13	Jim Kelly	29	160	18.1%
14	Drew Brees	36	201	17.9%
15	Terry Bradshaw	27	158	17.1%
16	Kerry Collins	30	180	16.7%
17	Drew Bledsoe	31	193	16.1%
18	Johnny Unitas	29	185	15.7%
19	Vinny Testaverde	33	214	15.4%
20	Brett Favre	45	298	15.1%
21	Fran Tarkenton	34	239	14.2%

Props to another celebrated first-rounder, Matt Ryan, for edging out the undrafted Eastern Illinois Panther, because eight Hall of Famers and four other sure-fire first balloters haven’t done it. Where is All Pro Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers on this list? He’s tied for 104th with 12 game winning drives, or 11.7 percent of his 103 starts.

These stats measure, to some degree, quarterback performance during pressure wins. As such, it’s a far from perfect measurement: Wins are a team stat, not a quarterback stat. But this data does at least suggest that the current quarterback of America’s Team does as good a job as anyone of giving his team a chance to win late in tight games.

As Romo approaches the final years of his career, do yourself a favor and don’t ask where the Cowboys will find “the next Tony Romo.”

Very likely, they won’t. This is special. Enjoy it while it lasts.

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