1. Kansas City Chiefs – Luke Joeckel – OT – Texas A&M
Unless Kansas City can work a trade with either Buffalo or Arizona for Geno Smith, Joeckel has the top spot locked up. Kansas City traded for Alex Smith, so now they need to focus on keeping Alex upright and healthy. Joeckel comes from a year under Texas A&M coach Kevin Summerlin’s offense, so he is used to a coach that will drop back to pass almost as much as Andy Reid does.
Other Possibilities: Eric Fisher – OT – Central Michigan, Bjoern Werner – DE – Florida State, Barkevious Mingo – DE/OLB – LSU
2. Jacksonville Jaguars – Bjoern Werner – DE – Florida State (Previous: Star Lotulelei, Defensive Tackle, Utah)
Another possibility for a trade here. They are even courting Geno Smith, but I believe that is just to provoke a trade from Arizona or Buffalo. If Jacksonville does hold the pick, Werner is the best pure Defensive End in the Draft. They need help applying pressure and Werner can do just that. He is also relatively young in playing experience, so there is room for growth in his game.
Other Possibilities: Barkevious Mingo – DE/OLB – LSU, Eric Fisher – OT – Central Michigan, Geno Smith – QB – West Virginia
3. Oakland Raiders – Eric Fisher – OT – Central Michigan (previous pick: Jarvis Jones – OLB – Georgia)
Oakland can go many different directions in this draft class. With their needs and lack of a second round pick moving out of the 3 spot and gaining a second round pick in the process would be ideal, but they may not be able to find a dance partner. Despite their obvious needs on defense, Fisher is just too good to pass up if they are focused to pick here. Fisher is an athletic tackle that can help protect a drop back quarterback, and also work well with a more mobile guy if they decide to try things with Terrell Pryor.
Other Possibilities: Damontre Moore – DE/OLB – Texas A&M, Barkevious Mingo – DE/OLB – LSU, Sharrif Floyd – DT – Florida
4. Philadelphia Eagles – Dee Milliner – CB – Alabama (Previous Pick: Eric Fisher – OT – Central Michigan)
The Eagles would love to have Fisher fall to them to help their offensive line. Since he is off the board, they use this pick to help the release of Namdi Asamougha. Milliner showed in the National Championship Game his ability to completely dominate the football field. Notre Dame threw at him early and often with no results to show for it.
Other possibilities: Sheldon Richardson – DT – Missouri, Sharrif Floyd – DT – Florida, Lanse Johnson – OT – Oklahoma
5. Detroit Lions – Barkevious Mingo – DE / OLB – LSU (Previous Pick: Dee Milliner – CB – Alabama)
If the Draft break this way for Detroit, they will likely be on the phone trying to deal this pick either for more picks or future considerations in 2014. If they are stuck they will likely try to find a replacement for Cliff Avril and Kyle Vandenbosh at defensive end. Mingo is a little undersized for a traditional end, but in the “Wide 9″ scheme he would fit as a pass rushing threat. He can play both standup and with his hand in the ground and does a remarkable job of shedding blockers, which will not be a problem with Ndamakung Suh and Nick Fairley getting attention from blockers.
Other Possibilities: Damontre Moore – DE – Texas A&M, Lane Johnson – OT – Oklahoma, Ezekial Ansah – DE/OLB – BYU
6. Cleveland Browns – Damontre Moore – DE/OLB – Texas A&M (Previous Pick: Bjoern Werner, Defensive End, Florida State)
The rise of the quarterback’s in the AFC North means the Browns have to find a way to get pressure on the quarterback. Moore is compared to his predecessor at Texas A&M, Von Miller, and if he can be that good the Browns will have a big piece to build their defense around.
Other Possibilities: Chance Warmack – G – Alabama, Ezekial Ansah – DE – BYU, Sheldon Richardson – DT – Missouri
7. Arizona Cardinals – Chance Warmack – G – Alabama
I know quarterback is the biggest need in Arizona, but I make this pick following a few of my Draft Rules. First, when drafting I like to take the future of the team, over initial reaction. Second, I do not like to take a quarterback unless they are the best player on the board and there aren’t other players to fill other holes in the roster. Following those rules, Aizona needs to upgrade the offensive line before they think about a quarterback. Warmack is the best lineman on the board and typically guards do not get drafted this high, but Warmack could be a long time fir for the Cardinals in both the run and the pass game.
Other Possibilities: Geno Smith – QB – West Virginia, Lane Johnson – OT – Oklahoma, Jonathan Cooper – G – North Carolina
8. Buffalo Bills – Geno Smith – QB – West Virginia (Previous Pick: Manti T’eo, Linebacker, Notre Dame)
Despite what I just said in the Arizona selection about quarterbacks, Geno Smith fits for the Bills. They are in a transitional period with the release of Ryan Fitzpatrick. They also spent money in free agency this year and last year upgrading the roster around the quarterback spot, so taking the best quarterback in this class in round one makes sense.
Other Possibilities: Cordarrelle Patterson – WR – Tennessee, Alec Ogletree – ILB – Georgia, Jonathan Cooper – G – North Carolina
9. New York Jets – Lane Johnson – OT – Oklahoma (Previous Pick: Damontre Moore – DE – Texas A&M)
The mass exodus from New York makes this pick very tough to predict. This is my selection, but under Rex Ryan the Jets have typically gone for defense in round one. One of the biggest problems for Mark Sanchez and the Jets has been protection, so they need someone to stabalize the right side of the offensive line. Johnson is the best right tackle in the Draft and could help Sanchez be the quarterback Rex Ryan likes to tell us he is.
Other Possibilities: Ezekial Ansah – DE/OLB – BYU, Dion Jordan – DE/OLB – Oregon, Jonathan Cooper – G – North Carolina
10. Tennessee Titans – Sheldon Richardson – DT – Missouri (Previous Pick: Alec Ogletree – LB – Georgia)
Let the debate begin between Richardson and Sharrif Floyd of Florida. I believe Richardson is the best/healthiest defensive tackle in the Draft. Richardson is a wide mass and will allow the speed of the tennessee defense to go after the ball carriers. Richardson is strong enough to attack double teams and if left one-on-one he can dominate the middle of the field.
Other Possibilities: Sharrif Floyd – DT – Florida, Alec Ogletree – ILB – Georgia, Star Lotulelei – DT – Utah