Degenerate Gambler Picks for Week 1

No one should follow these picks. Normally I’m right around 50/50, so I’m on pace with a buffalo nickel. A few thoughts I have about gambling are as follows: don’t do it, don’t believe anyone else has an inside track, don’t bet on the NFL, and don’t bet on the Cowboys or Steelers. The final caveat being that both teams have an enormous fan base. A percentage of those fans will blindly bet on both teams to win which affects the movement of the point spread. Ergo, every time anyone places a bet on the Cowboys or Steelers, they are making a riskier bet than if they were taking any other team in the league.

Now for the picks (there’s no system, no computer model, no clairvoyance, just good old fashioned guessing):

I like Carolina receiving 6.5 points against the Giants.  Carolina is my pick to win the NFC South.  I love their attitude, I love their personnel, and while I think the Giants will rebound this season, I can easily see Carolina winning in NY.

Loser pick:  There were 9 turnovers in the game, which practically makes it unpredicatable.  This is why you don’t bet on the NFL.

The second game I like are the Jets giving up 2.5 to the Ravens.  It’s not a secret that I do not like the Jets for the 2010 season as a Super Bowl contender.  So this won’t come as a surprise that I have them outright losing to the Ravens.  Take the money line, don’t take the money line.  Put a lock on it, don’t put a lock on it.  Either way.

Winner pick:  The big question is whether the Jets offense will be more productive against a weaker defense. Probably, because they couldn’t be much worse than they were against the Ravens.

This seems too good to be true.  Cincinnati getting 5.5 points against New England.  New England who has a variety of young players filling in due to injury.  A team that notoriously hides injuries has a list of 11 players either probable or questionable.  I like New England over the course of the season to win, but logic says to play Cincy.  That’s why I say avoid the game.  If it’s too good to be true, it is.  Other games that sound too good to be true are Dallas giving up only 3.5 to Washington, and San Diego giving up only 4.5 to the Chiefs.

I’ll keep tabs of my picks throughout the season and if I can be 10% better than a buffalo nickel, I’d be pretty satisfied.

This is a break even week, though I will be happy to mention that I told people not to throw good money after bad picks.  I’m 3-0 in my keep your money in your wallet picks!  Whoo!  Nothing ventured, nothing lost.

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Tags: Carolina Cincinatti Bengals Giants Jets Kc Chiefs New England Ravens San Diego Chargers Washington Redskins

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